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Serie A
Serie A Italy
22.03.2026 11:30 UTC Match prediction
22.03.2026 11:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Como - Pisa

Italy Football
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Referee Luca Pairetto
Capacity 13 602
Como
Como
5 : 0
Finished
Pisa
Pisa
🎯 PropickAI prediction
High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Como — 71%

1 · Como ✓ Pick70.7%
market76%
X · draw18.6%
market17%
2 · Pisa10.8%
market8%

Model estimate: win Como 70.7%, draw 18.6%, win Pisa 10.8%. Model favourite — Como.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Como - Pisa March 22, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Como.

Strongest: Como - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.25 / X 5.71 / 2 12.57
  • 1X2 market: Como 75.7% / X 16.7% / Pisa 7.6%
  • Glicko: Como 70.7% / X 18.6% / Pisa 10.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 ✓ Pick 75.9%
X 16.6%
2 7.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 55.3%
Under 2.5 44.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 74.1%
Total Over 2.5
Score 2:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 22.03.2026 11:30 UTC
Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia (Como)
Referee Luca Pairetto
Capacity 13,602

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Como 71%
💹 Market Como 7573%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Como - Pisa

Como: Win 1.25 Como: Draw 6.19 Pisa Win: 13.69 Obschiy total golov bolshe 2.5: 1.74 Obschiy total golov menshe 2.5: 2.17 Individualnyy total golov Como bolshe 2.5: 2.27 Individualnyy total golov Como menshe 2.5: 1.66 Individualnyy total golov Pisa bolshe 0.5: 2.22 Individu…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

6/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 5:0
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 95
min Event Player Team
7' 7' Normal Goal | Assane Diao A. Diao Como
29' 29' Normal Goal | Anastasios Douvikas | assist/sub out: Assane Diao A. Douvikas Como
35' 35' Yellow Card | Simone Canestrelli Simone Canestrelli Pisa
37' 37' Substitution 1 | Jesús Rodriguez | assist/sub out: M. Baturina J. Rodriguez Como
46' 46' Substitution 3 | E. Akinsanmiro | assist/sub out: Henrik Wendel Meister E. Akinsanmiro Pisa
48' 48' Normal Goal | M. Baturina M. Baturina Como
51' 51' Substitution 4 | Stefano Moreo | assist/sub out: Filip Stojilković Stefano Moreo Pisa
51' 51' Yellow Card | Samuele Angori Samuele Angori Pisa
Metric Como Pisa SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.4 0.44 final
Zablokirovannye udary 1 4 final
Shots off target 6 3 final
Shots on target 7 0 final
Udary vsego 14 7 final
Fouls soversheno 5 6 final
Zheltye kartochki 0 2 final
Offsides 2 3 final
Como #3 Samuele Angori, #4 A. Caracciolo, #5 Simone Canestrelli, #7 Mehdi Léris, #8 Malthe Højholt, #10 M. Tramoni, #12 Nícolas, #14 E. Akinsanmiro, #32 Stefano Moreo, #35 F. Loyola, #39 Raúl Albiol
Pisa #1 Jean Butez, #2 Marc Kempf, #10 N. Paz, #11 A. Douvikas, #17 J. Rodriguez, #18 Alberto Moreno, #23 M. Perrone, #33 Lucas Da Cunha, #34 Diego Carlos, #38 A. Diao, #77 Ignace Van der Brempt
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Caracciolo Como Dribling popytki 3
A. Caracciolo Como Edinoborstva vyigrano 5
A. Caracciolo Como Seyvy 0
A. Caracciolo Como Klyuchevye pasy 36
A. Caracciolo Como Reyting (staryy) 5.9
A. Caracciolo Como Bloki 3
A. Caracciolo Como Otbory vsego 32
A. Diao Como football.player.assists 1
A. Diao Como football.player.goals 1
A. Diao Como football.player.minutes_played 77
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Como 76.9% 70.7% market and model agree
Draw 16.0% 18.6% draw risk
Pisa 7.1% 10.8%
xG - 2.12 : 0.69
Total 2.5 Over 51.6% - Under 48.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.06
Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.06

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 70.7% / 18.6% / 10.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,652 / 1,404 Como / Pisa
RD 75 / 78 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.72 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.25 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%
2 9.64 market consensus · no value · model 10.8%
Double chance
X2 3.96 market consensus · no value · model 29.3%
12 1.14 market consensus · no value · model 81.4%
1X 1.04 market consensus · no value · model 89.2%
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.84 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.11 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.24 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.35 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.72 market consensus · no value · model 51.6%
Under 2.5 2.13 market consensus · no value · model 48.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.57 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.31 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.29 77.5%
X 5.89 17.0%
10.26 9.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1%
X 5.40 18.5% 5.90 17.0% 6.03 16.6% 5.00 20.0% 5.75 17.4% 5.90 17.0%
12.00 8.3% 11.50 8.7% 13.90 7.2% 11.00 9.1% 13.00 7.7% 13.00 7.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.54 64.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4%
yes 2.30 43.5% 2.34 42.7% 2.34 42.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.32 43.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.34 42.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 3.85 26.0% 4.02 24.9% 3.80 26.3% 3.75 26.7% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
home_away 1.13 88.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.03 97.1% 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.06 94.3% 1.03 97.1%
Match center
Como
Founded 1907
Pisa
Founded 1909
Match center
Como
JA J. Addai Achilles Tendon Injury
Pisa
JC J. Cuadrado Stomach Disorder
MA M. Aebischer Yellow Cards
Como Founded: 1907
Pisa Founded: 1909
Match center
Como
W W W W D
15.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Como 2:1 AS RomaAS Roma
07.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Como 2:1 CagliariCagliari
28.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Como 3:1 LecceLecce
21.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Como 2:0 JuventusJuventus
18.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Como 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Pisa
W L L L L
15.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Pisa 3:1 CagliariCagliari
07.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:4 JuventusJuventus
02.03 17:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 BolognaBologna
23.02 17:30 UTC Serie A
Pisa 0:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
13.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Pisa 1:2 AC MilanAC Milan
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyComo - Pisa

Como
1 matches total
Pisa
Como: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Pisa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Como 3:0 (06.01 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (3:0, 06.01 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 3

Match history

06.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Como
3:0
Pisa
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.