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Serie A
Serie A Italy
26.10.2025 17:00 UTC Match prediction
26.10.2025 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Fiorentina - Bologna

Italy Football
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
2 : 2
Finished
Bologna
Bologna

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Bologna October 26, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.63 / X 3.01 / 2 2.98
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 36.3% / X 31.7% / Bologna 32.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 36.3%
X 31.7%
2 32.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 41.3%
Under 2.5 58.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 26.10.2025 17:00 UTC
Match center

Fiorentina - Bologna

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.00 market consensus · line only
X 3.01 market consensus · line only
1 2.63 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · line only
12 1.39 market consensus · line only
1X 1.40 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.19 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.98 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.62 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.32 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.63 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.84 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.91 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.65 37.7%
X 3.00 33.3%
3.15 31.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.48 40.3% 2.61 38.3% 2.70 37.0% 2.55 39.2% 2.65 37.7% 2.63 38.0%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 2.90 34.5%
3.05 32.8% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.05 32.8% 2.90 34.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.96 51.0% 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.52 65.8%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.39 71.9% 1.41 70.9% 1.43 69.9%
home_draw 1.36 73.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.41 70.9%
Match center
Fiorentina
L L D L L
19.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 AC MilanAC Milan
05.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 AS RomaAS Roma
28.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:0 PisaPisa
21.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 ComoComo
13.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:3 NapoliNapoli
0 Wins
1 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.8 Conceded
1 Points
Bologna
W W D W L
19.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:0 CagliariCagliari
05.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 4:0 PisaPisa
28.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:2 LecceLecce
20.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Bologna 2:1 GenoaGenoa
14.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Bologna 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Bologna

Fiorentina
1 matches total
Bologna
Fiorentina: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Bologna: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Fiorentina 3:2 (18.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 18.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina
3:2
Bologna