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Serie A
Serie A Italy
24.01.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
24.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Fiorentina - Cagliari

Italy Football
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
1 : 2
Finished
Cagliari
Cagliari

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Cagliari January 24, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.89 / X 3.39 / 2 4.42
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 50.4% / X 28.0% / Cagliari 21.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 50.4%
X 28.1%
2 21.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 47.9%
Under 2.5 52.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 24.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Fiorentina - Cagliari

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.43 market consensus · line only
X 3.39 market consensus · line only
1 1.89 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.94 market consensus · line only
12 1.32 market consensus · line only
1X 1.21 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.97 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.50 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.44 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.85 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.00 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.94 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.82 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.93 51.8%
X 3.37 29.7%
4.64 21.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.84 54.4% 1.94 51.6% 1.98 50.5% 1.85 54.1% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0% 3.46 28.9% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4%
4.30 23.3% 4.20 23.8% 4.55 22.0% 3.90 25.6% 4.20 23.8% 4.55 22.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.91 52.4% 2.04 49.0% 1.92 52.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6% 2.03 49.3%
yes 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.94 51.6%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.35 74.1%
home_draw 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.23 81.3%
Match center
Fiorentina
W D D W L
18.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:1 BolognaBologna
11.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:2 LazioLazio
04.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 CremoneseCremonese
27.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:1 ParmaParma
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
8 Points
Cagliari
W L D L W
17.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:0 JuventusJuventus
12.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:3 GenoaGenoa
08.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:2 CremoneseCremonese
02.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
27.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:1 TorinoTorino
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Cagliari

Fiorentina
2 matches total
Cagliari
Fiorentina: 1 (50%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Cagliari: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Fiorentina 2:1 (23.04 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 23.04 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 1:1 (24.08 16:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina
1:1
Cagliari
23.04 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina
2:1
Cagliari