PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
Serie A
Serie A Italy
13.09.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
13.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Fiorentina - Napoli

Italy Football
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
1 : 3
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Fiorentina - Napoli September 13, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.98 / X 3.15 / 2 2.07
  • 1X2 market: Fiorentina 23.9% / X 30.2% / Napoli 45.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 23.9%
X 30.2%
2 45.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 40.1%
Under 2.5 59.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 13.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Fiorentina - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.07 market consensus · line only
X 3.15 market consensus · line only
1 4.00 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.25 market consensus · line only
12 1.36 market consensus · line only
1X 1.77 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.06 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.16 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.38 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.75 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.03 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.29 23.3%
X 3.12 32.1%
2.11 47.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.95 25.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.04 24.8% 3.80 26.3% 4.00 25.0% 4.15 24.1%
X 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.45 29.0% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.05 32.8%
2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.09 47.9% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 2.03 49.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.31 76.3%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5%
home_draw 1.73 57.8% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.60 62.5%
Match center
Fiorentina
D D W W L
31.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:0 TorinoTorino
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 CagliariCagliari
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 3:2 UdineseUdinese
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 3:2 BolognaBologna
12.05 16:30 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 Venezia
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.4 Conceded
8 Points
Napoli
W W W D D
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 CagliariCagliari
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 SassuoloSassuolo
23.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CagliariCagliari
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
11.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 GenoaGenoa
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFiorentina - Napoli

Fiorentina
0 matches total
Napoli
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history