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Serie A
Serie A Italy
12.01.2026 17:30 UTC Match prediction
12.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - Cagliari

Italy Football
Genoa
Genoa
3 : 0
Finished
Cagliari
Cagliari

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Cagliari January 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Genoa.

Line favourite market consensus: Genoa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.15 / X 2.98 / 2 4.01
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 44.2% / X 32.0% / Cagliari 23.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 62.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 44.3%
X 32.0%
2 23.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 37.2%
Under 2.5 62.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 12.01.2026 17:30 UTC
Match center

Genoa - Cagliari

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.02 market consensus · line only
X 2.98 market consensus · line only
1 2.16 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.71 market consensus · line only
12 1.40 market consensus · line only
1X 1.26 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.30 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.87 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.57 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.52 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.70 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.09 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.20 45.5%
X 3.02 33.1%
4.13 24.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.15 46.5% 2.16 46.3% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.18 45.9% 2.10 47.6%
X 2.94 34.0% 3.05 32.8% 3.09 32.4% 2.90 34.5% 2.92 34.3% 2.88 34.7%
3.95 25.3% 3.95 25.3% 4.07 24.6% 4.10 24.4% 4.00 25.0% 4.00 25.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.66 60.2% 1.76 56.8% 1.66 60.2%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.11 47.4% 2.09 47.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.09 47.9% 2.14 46.7% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.72 58.1% 1.75 57.1%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.43 69.9%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7%
Match center
Genoa
D D L L L
08.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 PisaPisa
29.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:3 AS RomaAS Roma
21.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
14.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 InterInter
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
2 Points
Cagliari
D L W D L
08.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:2 CremoneseCremonese
02.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:1 AC MilanAC Milan
27.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:1 TorinoTorino
21.12 11:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:2 PisaPisa
13.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:2 AtalantaAtalanta
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
5 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Cagliari

Genoa
1 matches total
Cagliari
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Cagliari: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (3:3, 22.11 14:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 3:3 (22.11 14:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 3

Match history

22.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa
3:3
Cagliari