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Serie A
Serie A Italy
29.09.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
29.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Genoa - Lazio

Italy Football
Genoa
Genoa
0 : 3
Finished
Lazio
Lazio

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Genoa - Lazio September 29, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Lazio.

Line favourite market consensus: Lazio. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.92 / X 2.96 / 2 2.69
  • 1X2 market: Genoa 32.5% / X 32.1% / Lazio 35.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 32.6%
X 32.1%
2 35.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.4%
Over 2.5 36.8%
Under 2.5 63.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Genoa - Lazio

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.69 market consensus · line only
X 2.97 market consensus · line only
1 2.93 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.42 market consensus · line only
12 1.40 market consensus · line only
1X 1.48 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.64 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.58 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.50 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.72 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.06 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.00 33.3%
X 3.02 33.1%
2.75 36.4%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.88 34.7% 3.00 33.3% 3.04 32.9% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.92 34.3%
X 2.96 33.8% 3.05 32.8% 3.04 32.9% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
2.65 37.7% 2.61 38.3% 2.80 35.7% 2.60 38.5% 2.70 37.0% 2.67 37.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.73 57.8% 1.79 55.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5%
yes 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3% 2.06 48.5% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.18 45.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.42 70.4%
home_draw 1.45 69.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6%
Match center
Genoa
L D L D W
20.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 BolognaBologna
15.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 ComoComo
31.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 JuventusJuventus
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:0 LecceLecce
24.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 3:1 BolognaBologna
1 Wins
2 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
5 Points
Lazio
L L W L L
21.09 10:30 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 AS RomaAS Roma
14.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 SassuoloSassuolo
31.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 4:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:2 ComoComo
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:1 LecceLecce
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyGenoa - Lazio

Genoa
2 matches total
Lazio
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Lazio: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Lazio 0:3 (27.10 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (0:3, 27.10 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 5
5 Goals conceded 0

Match history

23.04 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa
0:2
Lazio
27.10 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa
0:3
Lazio