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Serie A
Serie A Italy
14.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
14.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Inter - Lecce

Italy Football
Inter
Inter
1 : 0
Finished
Lecce
Lecce

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter - Lecce January 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Line favourite market consensus: Inter. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.17 / X 7.47 / 2 16.41
  • 1X2 market: Inter 81.3% / X 12.8% / Lecce 5.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 81.4%
X 12.8%
2 5.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Under 2.5 38.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Inter - Lecce

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 7.51 market consensus · line only
1 1.17 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 5.06 market consensus · line only
12 1.10 market consensus · line only
1X 1.03 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.73 market consensus · line only
2 -1 4.04 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.17 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.22 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.53 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.56 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.35 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.16 86.2%
X 8.10 12.4%
18.73 5.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.20 83.3% 1.14 87.7%
X 7.00 14.3% 7.30 13.7% 7.75 12.9% 8.00 12.5% 7.30 13.7% 7.50 13.3%
16.00 6.3% 15.00 6.7% 17.50 5.7% 13.00 7.7% 18.00 5.6% 17.00 5.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.55 64.5% 1.64 61.0% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.54 64.9% 1.59 62.9% 1.58 63.3%
yes 2.35 42.6% 2.28 43.9% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.32 43.1% 2.38 42.0% 2.32 43.1% 2.45 40.8% 2.32 43.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 4.75 21.1% 5.10 19.6% 4.50 22.2% 4.90 20.4% 5.20 19.2% 5.62 17.8%
home_away 1.09 91.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1%
home_draw 1.02 98.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Inter
D W W W W
11.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 2:2 NapoliNapoli
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 2:0 ParmaParma
04.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 3:1 BolognaBologna
28.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 1:0 AtalantaAtalanta
14.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Inter 2:1 GenoaGenoa
4 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
13 Points
Lecce
L L D L W
11.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:2 ParmaParma
06.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 AS RomaAS Roma
03.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:1 JuventusJuventus
27.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:3 ComoComo
12.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 PisaPisa
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter - Lecce

Inter
0 matches total
Lecce
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history