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Serie A
Serie A Italy
11.01.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
11.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Inter - Napoli

Italy Football
Inter
Inter
2 : 2
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter - Napoli January 11, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Line favourite market consensus: Inter. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.77 / X 3.46 / 2 5.10
  • 1X2 market: Inter 53.8% / X 27.5% / Napoli 18.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 53.8%
X 27.5%
2 18.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.0%
Over 2.5 42.7%
Under 2.5 57.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 11.01.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Inter - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.12 market consensus · line only
X 3.47 market consensus · line only
1 1.77 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.08 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.18 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.09 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.56 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 9.75 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.25 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.68 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.72 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.07 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.78 56.2%
X 3.51 28.5%
5.32 18.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.77 56.5% 1.79 55.9% 1.84 54.4% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.56 28.1% 3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.30 30.3%
5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.23 19.1% 5.25 19.1% 5.30 18.9% 5.00 20.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 1.73 57.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.74 57.5%
yes 2.05 48.8% 2.11 47.4% 2.03 49.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.03 49.3% 2.16 46.3% 2.02 49.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.14 46.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.17 85.5% 1.20 83.3% 1.17 85.5% 1.19 84.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.19 84.0%
Match center
Inter
W W W W W
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 2:0 ParmaParma
04.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 3:1 BolognaBologna
28.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Inter 1:0 AtalantaAtalanta
14.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Inter 2:1 GenoaGenoa
06.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Inter 4:0 ComoComo
5 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
15 Points
Napoli
D W W L W
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
04.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 LazioLazio
28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
14.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 UdineseUdinese
07.12 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 JuventusJuventus
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter - Napoli

Inter
1 matches total
Napoli
Inter: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Napoli 1:3 (25.10 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (1:3, 25.10 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 3
3 Goals conceded 1

Match history

25.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Inter
1:3
Napoli