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Serie A Italy

35 round 03.05.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 18:45 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Inter - Parma

Italy Football

Stadium Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Referee K. Bonacina

Capacity 80 018

Inter

2 : 0

Finished

Parma

🎯 PropickAI prediction

High confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

1 Inter — 73%

1 · Inter ✓ Pick73.1%

market78%

X · draw17.3%

market14%

2 · Parma9.6%

market7%

Model estimate: win Inter 73.1%, draw 17.3%, win Parma 9.6%. Model favourite — Inter.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter - Parma May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Inter.

Strongest: Inter - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.21 / X 6.58 / 2 13.17
1X2 market: Inter 78.3% / X 14.5% / Parma 7.2%
Glicko: Inter 73.1% / X 17.3% / Parma 9.6%
Total 2.5: over probability 26.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 ✓ Pick 78.4%

X 14.4%

2 7.2%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.5%

Over 2.5 63.0%

Under 2.5 37.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome

Agreement 5/5

Confidence 75.9%

Total Under 2.5

Score 1:0

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium San-Siro (Dzhuzeppe Meatstsa) (Milan, Italy), 74 198 zriteley (93% pri vmestimosti 80 018)

Referee Kevin Bonachina

Start 03.05.2026 18:45 UTC

Capacity 80,018

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Inter 73%

💹 Market Inter 7829%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Inter - Parma

Itogovyy protokol and rezultaty vstrechi Inter M - Parma, 3 maya 2026. Highlights and statistika matches, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35 round. Inter M - Parma, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matches.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 13

Statistics 24

Lineups 49

min Event Player Team

45' 45' Normal Goal | M. Thuram | assist/sub out: P. Zielinski M. Thuram Inter

46' 46' Substitution 1 | F. Esposito | assist/sub out: A. Bonny F. Esposito Inter

64' 64' Yellow Card | P. Zielinski P. Zielinski Inter

66' 66' Substitution 4 | A. Bastoni | assist/sub out: Carlos Augusto A. Bastoni Inter

66' 66' Substitution 2 | P. Zielinski | assist/sub out: H. Mkhitaryan P. Zielinski Inter

66' 66' Substitution 3 | M. Thuram | assist/sub out: L. Martinez M. Thuram Inter

67' 67' Substitution 2 | M. Pellegrino | assist/sub out: N. Elphege Mateo Pellegrino Parma

67' 67' Substitution 1 | M. Keita | assist/sub out: C. Ordonez Mandela Keita Parma

Metric Inter Parma SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 2.09 0.27 final

Zablokirovannye udary 2 1 final

Shots off target 5 3 final

Shots on target 5 0 final

Udary vsego 12 4 final

Fouls soversheno 9 7 final

Zheltye kartochki 1 0 final

Offsides 0 3 final

Inter #1 Yann Sommer, #32 F. Dimarco, #94 F. Esposito, #95 A. Bastoni, #8 P. Sucic, #9 M. Thuram, #25 M. Akanji, #7 P. Zielinski, #31 Yann Bisseck, #23 N. Barella, #2 Denzel Dumfries

Parma #3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #31 Zion Suzuki, #7 G. Strefezza, #16 Mandela Keita, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, #10 A. Bernabe, #15 Enrico Delprato

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Bernabe Parma football.player.assists 0

A. Bernabe Parma Dribling popytki 4

A. Bernabe Parma Edinoborstva vsego 1

A. Bernabe Parma Edinoborstva vyigrano 5

A. Bernabe Parma Fouls soversheno 2

A. Bernabe Parma Seyvy 0

A. Bernabe Parma football.player.minutes_played 75

A. Bernabe Parma Klyuchevye pasy 47

A. Bernabe Parma Reyting (staryy) 7.3

A. Bernabe Parma Bloki 2

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Inter 79.9% 73.1% market and model agree

Draw 13.9% 17.3% draw risk

Parma 6.2% 9.6%

xG - 2.24 : 0.67

Total 2.5 Over 26.6% - Under 73.4%

Model check - - Difference 0.07

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.07

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 73.1% / 17.3% / 9.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,741 / 1,488 Inter / Parma

RD 76 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

X 6.58 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 1.21 market consensus · no value · model 73.1%

Double chance

X2 4.23 market consensus · no value · model 26.9%

12 1.11 market consensus · no value · model 82.7%

1X 1.03 market consensus · no value · model 90.4%

Handicap

2 -0.5 4.03 market consensus · line only

2 -1 3.51 market consensus · line only

1 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only

1 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · no value · model 26.6%

Under 2.5 2.54 market consensus · weak value +86.4% · model 73.4%

Both teams to score

No 1.72 market consensus · line only

Yes 2.04 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	1.21 82.6%	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.24 80.7%	1.20 83.3%
X	6.00 16.7%	7.11 14.1%	6.00 16.7%	7.00 14.3%	6.80 14.7%	6.50 15.4%
	12.00 8.3%	14.70 6.8%	12.00 8.3%	13.00 7.7%	14.00 7.1%	13.00 7.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	1.73 57.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.75 57.1%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.80 55.6%	1.67 59.9%	1.69 59.2%	1.77 56.5%
yes	2.05 48.8%	2.09 47.9%	2.05 48.8%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	1.95 51.3%	2.05 48.8%	2.04 49.0%	1.98 50.5%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	4.20 23.8%	4.56 21.9%	4.00 25.0%	4.33 23.1%	4.35 23.0%	4.33 23.1%
home_away	1.11 90.1%	1.13 88.5%	1.13 88.5%	1.10 90.9%	1.12 89.3%	1.08 92.6%
home_draw	1.03 97.1%	1.03 97.1%	1.04 96.2%	1.04 96.2%	1.05 95.2%	1.03 97.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5	1.17 85.5%	1.10 90.9%
Over 1.75	—	1.14 87.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.17 85.5%
Over 2.25	—	1.34 74.6%
Over 2.5	1.50 66.7%	1.48 67.6%
Over 2.75	—	1.61 62.1%
Over 3.5	2.25 44.4%	—
Over 4.5	3.80 26.3%	—
Over 5.5	7.00 14.3%	—
Under 1.5	5.00 20.0%	—
Under 2.5	2.55 39.2%	—
Under 3.5	1.62 61.7%	—
Under 4.5	1.25 80.0%	—
Under 5.5	1.09 91.7%	—

Match center

Inter

Founded 1908

Parma

Founded 1913

Match center

Inter

HÇ H. Çalhanoğlu Muscle Injury

LH Luis Henrique Thigh Injury

Parma

MF M. Frigan Knee Injury

BC B. Cremaschi Injury

Matiya Frigan

Inter Founded: 1908

Parma Founded: 1913

Match center

Inter

D W W W D

26.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Inter 2:2 Torino

17.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 3:0 Cagliari

12.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 4:3 Como

05.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 5:2 AS Roma

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Inter 1:1 Fiorentina

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

3.0 Scored

1.6 Conceded

11 Points

Parma

W W D D L

25.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:0 Pisa

18.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:0 Udinese

12.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Napoli

04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Parma 1:1 Lazio

21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Parma 0:2 Cremonese

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

0.8 Scored

0.8 Conceded

8 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter - Parma

Inter

2 matches total

Parma

Inter: 1 (50%)

Draws:1 (50%)

Parma: 0 (0%)

Biggest win Inter 2:0 (07.01 19:45 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 05.04 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (05.04 16:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

4 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 4

Match history

07.01 19:45 UTC

Serie A

Inter

2:0

Parma

05.04 16:00 UTC

Serie A

Inter

2:2

Parma

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Inter

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 Parma

34 Games 34

25 Wins 10

4 Draws 12

5 Losses 12

80 Scored 25

31 Conceded 40

79 Points 42

101.97 Attacks 83.5

56.7 Dangerous attacks 39.06

0 Big chances 0

17.29 Shots on goal 10.41

5.97 Shots on target 2.76

Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Markus Tyuram Petr Zelinski 1:0 45+1' Genrikh Mkhitaryan Lautaro Martines 2:0 80' Nakazaniya Petr Zelinski 64'

Inter M Parma 34 Games 34 25 Wins 10 4 Draws 12 5 Losses 12 80 Scored 25 31 Conceded 40 79 Points 42 101.97 Attacks 83.5 56.7 Dangerous attacks 39.06 0 Big chances 0 17.29 Shots on goal 10.41 5.97 Udary v stvor 2.76 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 6.41 Uglovye 4.06 1.79 Offsaydy 1.12 13.47 Foly 10.74 59.68 % vladeniya myachom 44.59 1.76 Warnings 1.65 0 Sendoffs 0.12 Goly Markus Tyuram Petr Zelinski 1:0 45+1' Genrikh Mkhitaryan Lautaro Martines 2:0 80' Nakazaniya Petr Zelinski 64'