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Serie A
Serie A Italy
14.02.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
14.02.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lazio - Atalanta

Italy Football
Lazio
Lazio
0 : 2
Finished
Atalanta
Atalanta

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lazio - Atalanta February 14, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.56 / X 3.22 / 2 2.16
  • 1X2 market: Lazio 26.7% / X 29.5% / Atalanta 43.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 26.6%
X 29.5%
2 43.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.7%
Over 2.5 46.4%
Under 2.5 53.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.02.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Lazio - Atalanta

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.17 market consensus · line only
X 3.22 market consensus · line only
1 3.57 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · line only
12 1.34 market consensus · line only
1X 1.70 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.15 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.30 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.06 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.96 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.71 27.0%
X 3.33 30.0%
2.19 45.7%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.45 29.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.30 30.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.65 27.4%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.38 29.6% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.20 31.3%
2.14 46.7% 2.14 46.7% 2.22 45.1% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 2.03 49.3% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.99 50.3%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.88 53.2%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.67 59.9% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%
Match center
Lazio
D W D L W
08.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 2:2 JuventusJuventus
30.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 3:2 GenoaGenoa
24.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:0 LecceLecce
19.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Lazio 0:3 ComoComo
11.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.4 Conceded
8 Points
Atalanta
W D W D W
09.02 17:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
01.02 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:0 ComoComo
25.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 4:0 ParmaParma
16.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 PisaPisa
10.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:0 TorinoTorino
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.8 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLazio - Atalanta

Lazio
2 matches total
Atalanta
Lazio: 1 (50%)
Draws:1 (50%)
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Lazio 1:0 (06.04 16:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 06.04 16:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (19.10 16:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

19.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio
0:0
Atalanta
06.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Lazio
1:0
Atalanta