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Serie A
Serie A Italy
19.09.2025 18:45 UTC Match prediction
19.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce - Cagliari

Italy Football
Lecce
Lecce
1 : 2
Finished
Cagliari
Cagliari

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Cagliari September 19, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cagliari.

Line favourite market consensus: Cagliari. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.84 / X 2.97 / 2 2.78
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 33.6% / X 32.1% / Cagliari 34.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.9%
1 33.6%
X 32.1%
2 34.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.6%
Over 2.5 38.7%
Under 2.5 61.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 19.09.2025 18:45 UTC
Match center

Lecce - Cagliari

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.78 market consensus · line only
X 2.97 market consensus · line only
1 2.85 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.44 market consensus · line only
12 1.39 market consensus · line only
1X 1.45 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.45 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.73 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.11 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.47 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.77 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.00 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.95 33.9%
X 2.99 33.4%
2.82 35.5%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.85 35.1% 2.95 33.9% 2.92 34.3% 2.75 36.4% 2.70 37.0% 2.87 34.8%
X 2.92 34.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.09 32.4% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3% 2.95 33.9%
2.72 36.8% 2.72 36.8% 2.86 35.0% 2.70 37.0% 2.88 34.7% 2.75 36.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.77 56.5% 1.84 54.4% 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.70 58.8% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.69 59.2% 1.75 57.1%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.97 50.8% 1.96 51.0% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 1.93 51.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.19 45.7% 1.96 51.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.46 68.5% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.35 74.1% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.38 72.5%
home_draw 1.44 69.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.43 69.9%
Match center
Lecce
L L D W W
14.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:4 AtalantaAtalanta
29.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:2 AC MilanAC Milan
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Lecce 0:0 GenoaGenoa
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 LazioLazio
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Lecce 1:0 TorinoTorino
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Cagliari
W L D L W
13.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 2:0 ParmaParma
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:1 NapoliNapoli
24.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 1:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
23.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 0:2 NapoliNapoli
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Cagliari 3:0 Venezia
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Cagliari

Lecce
0 matches total
Cagliari
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history