Serie A Italy

20.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction

20.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Finished

Serie A

Lecce - Fiorentina

Italy Futbol

Stadium Виа дель маре

Lecce

1 : 1

Finished

Fiorentina

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Fiorentina — 44%

1 · Lecce28.1%

X · draw28.4%

2 · Fiorentina43.5%

Model estimate: win Lecce 28.1%, draw 28.4%, win Fiorentina 43.5%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Fiorentina 20 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Strongest: Fiorentina - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.48 / X 3.27 / 2 2.17
1X2 market: Lecce 27.3% / X 29.0% / Fiorentina 43.7%
Glicko: Lecce 28.1% / X 28.4% / Fiorentina 43.5%
Total 2.5: over probability 41.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%

1 27.3%

X 29.0%

2 43.7%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%

Over 2.5 42.9%

Under 2.5 57.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П2

Main outcome П2

Agreement 4/4

Confidence 44.1%

Total ТМ 2.5

Score 1:1

Модели дают единый сигнал. Такие матчи мы помечаем как более сильные.

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Match center

Start 20.04.2026 18:45 UTC

Stadium Виа дель маре (Лечче)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model Fiorentina 44%

💹 Market Fiorentina 4368%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Lecce - Fiorentina

Lecce: Победа 3.50 Lecce: Ничья 3.40 Fiorentina Победа: 2.15 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.10 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.73 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lecce больше 0.5: 1.44 Индивидуальный тотал голов Lecce меньше 0.5: 2.62 Индивидуальный тотал голов Fiorentina больше 1.5…

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 2 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 1:1

Events 17

Statistics 24

Lineups 46

min Event Player Team

11' 11' Substitution 1 | Robin Gosens | assist/sub out: L. Balbo Fiorentina

30' 30' Normal Goal | Jack Harrison S. Quillahuaman Fiorentina

56' 56' Substitution 1 | K. N’Dri | assist/sub out: L. Banda A. Polorotov Lecce

57' 57' Substitution 2 | K. N’Dri | assist/sub out: L. Banda A. Polorotov Lecce

57' 57' Substitution 3 | O. Ngom | assist/sub out: O. Gandelman Lecce

60' 60' Substitution 2 | Albert GuГ°mundsson | assist/sub out: Manor Solomon J. Le Cardinal Fiorentina

62' 62' Yellow Card | S. Pierotti Graham Burke Lecce

71' 71' Normal Goal | Tiago Gabriel Lecce

Metric Lecce Fiorentina SStats

Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.26 1.14 final

Заблокированные удары 3 0 final

Удары мимо 7 2 final

Удары в створ 4 3 final

Удары всего 14 5 final

Фолы совершено 8 13 final

Желтые карточки 2 4 final

Офсайды 2 1 final

Lecce #2 DodГґ, #5 M. Pongracic, #6 L. Ranieri, #8 R. Mandragora, #10 A. GuГ°mundsson, #17 J. Harrison, #21 R. Gosens, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #44 N. Fagioli, #91 R. Piccoli

Fiorentina #5 J. Siebert, #11 N'Dri Konan, #17 Danilo Veiga, #20 Y. Ramadani, #25 Antonino Gallo, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #79 O. Ngom, #99 Walid Cheddira

Player Team Metric SStats

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce football.player.assists 0

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Дриблинг попытки 1

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Дриблинг успешно 1

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Единоборства выиграно 4

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Фолы на игроке 1

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Сейвы 0

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce football.player.minutes_played 60

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Ключевые пасы 16

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Рейтинг (старый) 6.2

A. GuГ°mundsson Lecce Отборы всего 10

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Lecce 27.4% 28.1%

Draw 28.3% 28.4% draw risk

Fiorentina 44.4% 43.5% market and model agree

xG - 0.97 : 1.28

Total 2.5 Over 41.9% - Under 58.1%

Model check - - Difference 0.01

Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 28.1% / 28.4% / 43.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,424 / 1,504 Lecce / Fiorentina

RD 74 / 72 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 43.5%

X 3.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 3.48 market consensus · no value · model 28.1%

Double chance

X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%

12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 71.6%

1X 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 56.5%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 2.13 market consensus · line only

2 +1 3.40 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 41.9%

Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 58.1%

Both teams to score

No 1.84 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano
П1	3.40 29.4%	3.60 27.8%	3.64 27.5%	3.30 30.3%	3.50 28.6%	3.50 28.6%
Х	3.25 30.8%	3.40 29.4%	3.40 29.4%	3.10 32.3%	3.30 30.3%	3.30 30.3%
П2	2.14 46.7%	2.14 46.7%	2.24 44.6%	2.15 46.5%	2.15 46.5%	2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet
no	1.83 54.6%	1.95 51.3%	1.83 54.6%	1.83 54.6%	1.80 55.6%	1.82 55.0%	1.87 53.5%	1.80 55.6%	1.81 55.3%
yes	1.91 52.4%	1.86 53.8%	1.89 52.9%	1.95 51.3%	1.95 51.3%	1.91 52.4%	1.87 53.5%	1.90 52.6%	1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.30 76.9%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.25 80.0%
home_away	1.28 78.1%	1.37 73.0%	1.33 75.2%	1.33 75.2%	1.32 75.8%	1.30 76.9%
home_draw	1.67 59.9%	1.73 57.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.62 61.7%	1.72 58.1%	1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	188Bet	1xBet
ТБ 0.5	1.07 93.5%	—	1.02 98.0%
ТБ 0.75	—	—	1.04 96.2%
ТБ 1.0	—	—	1.06 94.3%
ТБ 1.25	—	—	1.22 82.0%
ТБ 1.5	1.40 71.4%	—	1.36 73.5%
ТБ 1.75	—	—	1.47 68.0%
ТБ 2.25	—	1.90 52.6%	—
ТБ 2.5	2.20 45.5%	—	—
ТБ 3.5	4.20 23.8%	—	—
ТБ 4.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 0.5	8.00 12.5%	—	—
ТМ 1.5	2.90 34.5%	—	—
ТМ 2.25	—	2.00 50.0%	—
ТМ 2.5	1.65 60.6%	—	—
ТМ 3.5	1.22 82.0%	—	—
ТМ 4.5	1.07 93.5%	—	—

Match center

Lecce

Founded 1908

Fiorentina

Founded 1926

Match center

Lecce

L L L L W

12.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:2 Bologna

06.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:3 Atalanta

22.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 0:1 AS Roma

14.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

Lecce 1:2 Napoli

08.03 11:30 UTC Serie A

Lecce 2:1 Cremonese

1 Wins

0 Draws

4 Losses

0.6 Scored

1.8 Conceded

3 Points

Fiorentina

W W D W D

13.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:0 Lazio

04.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:0 Hellas Verona

22.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 1:1 Inter

16.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 4:1 Cremonese

08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A

Fiorentina 0:0 Parma

3 Wins

2 Draws

0 Losses

1.4 Scored

0.4 Conceded

11 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historyLecce - Fiorentina

Lecce

2 matches total

Fiorentina

Lecce: 1 (50%)

Draws:0 (0%)

Fiorentina: 1 (50%)

Biggest win Fiorentina 0:6 (20.10 13:00 UTC) largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 6 goals (0:6, 20.10 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 6

6 Goals conceded 1

Match history

02.11 14:00 UTC

Serie A

Lecce

1:0

Fiorentina

20.10 13:00 UTC

Serie A

Lecce

0:6

Fiorentina

Match center

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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.