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AI verdict

AI pick Fiorentina win probability ~44% confidence Low best odds 2.17

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Fiorentina. Full breakdown below.

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Serie A
Serie A Italy
20.04.2026 18:45 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
20.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Lecce vs Fiorentina — Football prediction

Italy Football
Stadium Via del mare
Lecce
Lecce
1 : 1
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Lecce go head-to-head with Fiorentina on April 20, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Lecce 1-0-4, Fiorentina 3-2-0. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The market favourite is Fiorentina at roughly 44%. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 28% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 Fiorentina — 44%

1 · Lecce28.1%
X · draw28.4%
2 · Fiorentina43.5%

Model estimate: win Lecce 28.1%, draw 28.4%, win Fiorentina 43.5%. Model favourite — Fiorentina.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Double chance — Fiorentina or draw 1.30

Model confidence 73% ~81% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Lecce - Fiorentina April 20, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Strongest: Fiorentina - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.48 / X 3.27 / 2 2.17
  • 1X2 market: Lecce 27.3% / X 29.0% / Fiorentina 43.7%
  • Glicko: Lecce 28.1% / X 28.4% / Fiorentina 43.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 41.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1% 14 books · best price +3.9%
1 27.3%
X 29.0%
2 43.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 42.9%
Under 2.5 57.1%

Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 2

Main outcome
Agreement 4/4
Confidence 44.1%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center
Start 20.04.2026 18:45 UTC
Market 1 27.3% @ 3.48 / X 29.0% @ 3.27 / 2 43.7% @ 2.17
Stadium Via del mare (Lechche)

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Fiorentina 44%
💹 Market Fiorentina 44%
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Match center

Lecce - Fiorentina

Lecce: win 3.50 Lecce: draw 3.40 Fiorentina win: 2.15 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 2.10 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 1.73 Individualnyy Total goals Lecce Over 0.5: 1.44 Individualnyy Total goals Lecce Under 0.5: 2.62 Individualnyy Total goals Fiorentina Over 1.5…

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score 1:1
Events 17
Statistics 24
Lineups 46
min Event Player Team
11' 11' Substitution 1 | Robin Gosens | assist/sub out: L. Balbo Kho R./Yebens X. Fiorentina
30' 30' Normal Goal | Jack Harrison S. Quillahuaman Fiorentina
56' 56' Substitution 1 | K. N’Dri | assist/sub out: L. Banda A. Polorotov Lechche
57' 57' Substitution 2 | K. N’Dri | assist/sub out: L. Banda A. Polorotov Lechche
57' 57' Substitution 3 | O. Ngom | assist/sub out: O. Gandelman Lechche
60' 60' Substitution 2 | Albert GuG°mundsson | assist/sub out: Manor Solomon J. Le Cardinal Fiorentina
62' 62' Yellow Card | S. Pierotti Graham Burke Lechche
71' 71' Normal Goal | Tiago Gabriel Lechche
Metric Lecce Fiorentina SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.26 1.14 final
Zablokirovannye udary 3 0 final
Shots off target 7 2 final
Shots on target 4 3 final
Udary vsego 14 5 final
Fouls soversheno 8 13 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 4 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Lecce #2 DodGґ, #5 M. Pongracic, #6 L. Ranieri, #8 R. Mandragora, #10 A. GuG°mundsson, #17 J. Harrison, #21 R. Gosens, #27 C. Ndour, #43 David de Gea, #44 N. Fagioli, #91 R. Piccoli
Fiorentina #5 J. Siebert, #11 N'Dri Konan, #17 Danilo Veiga, #20 Y. Ramadani, #25 Antonino Gallo, #29 Lassana Coulibaly, #30 Wladimiro Falcone, #44 Tiago Gabriel, #50 Santiago Pierotti, #79 O. Ngom, #99 Walid Cheddira
Player Team Metric SStats
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche football.player.assists 0
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Dribling popytki 1
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Dribling uspeshno 1
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Edinoborstva vyigrano 4
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Fouls na igroke 1
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Seyvy 0
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche football.player.minutes_played 60
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Klyuchevye pasy 16
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Reyting (staryy) 6.2
A. GuG°mundsson Lechche Otbory vsego 10
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Lecce 27.4% 28.1%
Draw 28.3% 28.4% draw risk
Fiorentina 44.4% 43.5% market and model agree
xG - 0.97 : 1.28
Total 2.5 Over 41.9% - Under 58.1%
Model check - - Difference 0.01
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.01

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 28.1% / 28.4% / 43.5% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,424 / 1,504 Lecce / Fiorentina
RD 74 / 72 rating uncertainty

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 43.5%
X 3.27 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 3.48 market consensus · no value · model 28.1%
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · no value · model 71.9%
12 1.32 market consensus · no value · model 71.6%
1X 1.68 market consensus · no value · model 56.5%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.08 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.13 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.40 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.22 market consensus · no value · model 41.9%
Under 2.5 1.67 market consensus · no value · model 58.1%
Both teams to score
No 1.84 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.90 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.40 29.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.64 27.5% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.10 32.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%
2.14 46.7% 2.14 46.7% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.18 45.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.83 54.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3%
yes 1.91 52.4% 1.86 53.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.89 52.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.33 75.2% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.67 59.9% 1.73 57.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.07 93.5% — 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 — — 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.0 — — 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.22 82.0%
Over 1.5 1.40 71.4% — 1.36 73.5%
Over 1.75 — — 1.47 68.0%
Over 2.25 — 1.90 52.6% —
Over 2.5 2.20 45.5% — —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 4.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 0.5 8.00 12.5% — —
Under 1.5 2.90 34.5% — —
Under 2.25 — 2.00 50.0% —
Under 2.5 1.65 60.6% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.07 93.5% — —
Match center
Lecce
Founded 1908
Fiorentina
Founded 1926
Match center
Lecce
L L L L W
12.04 16:00 UTC Seriya A
Lecce 0:2 BolonyaBolonya
06.04 13:00 UTC Seriya A
Lecce 0:3 AtalantaAtalanta
22.03 17:00 UTC Seriya A
Lecce 0:1 RomaRoma
14.03 17:00 UTC Seriya A
Lecce 1:2 NapoliNapoli
08.03 11:30 UTC Seriya A
Lecce 2:1 CremoneseCremonese
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
3 Points
Fiorentina
W W D W D
13.04 18:45 UTC Seriya A
Fiorentina 1:0 LatsioLatsio
04.04 16:00 UTC Seriya A
Fiorentina 1:0 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
22.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A
Fiorentina 1:1 InterInter
16.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A
Fiorentina 4:1 CremoneseCremonese
08.03 14:00 UTC Seriya A
Fiorentina 0:0 Parma KalchoParma Kalcho
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Lecce - Fiorentina

Lecce
2 matches total
Fiorentina
Lecce: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Fiorentina: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Fiorentina 0:6 (20.10 13:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 6 goals (0:6, 20.10 13:00 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

02.11 14:00 UTC Seriya A
Lechche
1:0
Fiorentina
20.10 13:00 UTC Seriya A
Lechche
0:6
Fiorentina
Match center
Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.

More predictions

Fiorentina – Torino 05.09 Cagliari – Lecce 07.09 Lecce – Monza 13.09 Venezia – Fiorentina 13.09 Inter – Napoli 05.09 AS Roma – Atalanta 05.09

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lecce vs Fiorentina?

By the PropickAI model, Fiorentina is favoured — about 44% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Lecce vs Fiorentina?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Fiorentina. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Lecce vs Fiorentina?

Live odds for Lecce vs Fiorentina from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Lecce vs Fiorentina start?

April 20, 2026.