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Serie A
Serie A Italy
15.02.2026 19:45 UTC Match prediction
15.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - AS Roma

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
2 : 2
Finished
AS Roma
AS Roma

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - AS Roma February 15, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.52 / X 2.82 / 2 3.32
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 37.7% / X 33.7% / AS Roma 28.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 66.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.3%
1 37.7%
X 33.7%
2 28.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 33.6%
Under 2.5 66.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 15.02.2026 19:45 UTC
Match center

Napoli - AS Roma

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.33 market consensus · line only
X 2.83 market consensus · line only
1 2.52 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.53 market consensus · line only
12 1.42 market consensus · line only
1X 1.34 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.16 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.79 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.81 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.64 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.20 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.52 39.7%
X 2.93 34.1%
3.42 29.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.44 41.0% 2.51 39.8% 2.60 38.5% 2.45 40.8% 2.55 39.2% 2.50 40.0%
X 2.82 35.5% 2.84 35.2% 2.93 34.1% 2.70 37.0% 2.80 35.7% 2.85 35.1%
3.30 30.3% 3.40 29.4% 3.46 28.9% 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.62 61.7% 1.69 59.2% 1.59 62.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.60 62.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5%
yes 2.20 45.5% 2.19 45.7% 2.24 44.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.24 44.6% 2.28 43.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.56 64.1% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.36 73.5% 1.46 68.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.39 71.9% 1.40 71.4%
home_draw 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.29 77.5%
Match center
Napoli
W W L W D
07.02 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:2 GenoaGenoa
31.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
25.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:3 JuventusJuventus
17.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 SassuoloSassuolo
14.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
AS Roma
W L D W W
09.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 CagliariCagliari
02.02 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 0:1 UdineseUdinese
25.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
18.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 TorinoTorino
10.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
AS Roma 2:0 SassuoloSassuolo
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - AS Roma

Napoli
1 matches total
AS Roma
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AS Roma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Napoli 1:0 (30.11 19:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 1 goals (1:0, 30.11 19:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 1

Match history

30.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli
1:0
AS Roma