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Serie A
Serie A Italy
22.11.2025 19:45 UTC Match prediction
22.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Atalanta

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
3 : 1
Finished
Atalanta
Atalanta

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Atalanta November 22, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.36 / X 3.11 / 2 3.27
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 40.3% / X 30.6% / Atalanta 29.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.1%
1 40.3%
X 30.6%
2 29.1%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 44.2%
Under 2.5 55.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.11.2025 19:45 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Atalanta

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.27 market consensus · line only
X 3.11 market consensus · line only
1 2.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.60 market consensus · line only
12 1.36 market consensus · line only
1X 1.35 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.26 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.19 market consensus · line only
2 +1 6.03 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.16 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.91 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.44 41.0%
X 3.13 32.0%
3.36 29.8%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.32 43.1% 2.36 42.4% 2.44 41.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.37 42.2%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.22 31.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8%
3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.38 29.6% 3.20 31.3% 3.20 31.3% 3.25 30.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.94 51.6% 1.89 52.9% 1.85 54.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.87 53.5% 1.87 53.5% 1.96 51.0%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.87 53.5% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.61 62.1%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.34 74.6% 1.39 71.9%
home_draw 1.33 75.2% 1.37 73.0% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.37 73.0% 1.36 73.5%
Match center
Napoli
L D W W L
09.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:2 BolognaBologna
01.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ComoComo
28.10 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 LecceLecce
25.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 InterInter
18.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:1 TorinoTorino
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
7 Points
Atalanta
L L D D D
09.11 11:30 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:3 SassuoloSassuolo
01.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:1 UdineseUdinese
28.10 19:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
25.10 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 CremoneseCremonese
19.10 16:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 0:0 LazioLazio
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Atalanta

Napoli
0 matches total
Atalanta
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history