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Serie A
Serie A Italy
31.01.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
31.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
2 : 1
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Fiorentina January 31, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.01 / X 3.16 / 2 4.24
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 47.4% / X 30.1% / Fiorentina 22.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 56.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 47.4%
X 30.1%
2 22.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.4%
Over 2.5 43.3%
Under 2.5 56.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 31.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Fiorentina

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 4.26 market consensus · line only
X 3.17 market consensus · line only
1 2.01 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.81 market consensus · line only
12 1.36 market consensus · line only
1X 1.24 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.84 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.43 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 4.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.70 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.21 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.69 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.02 49.5%
X 3.18 31.5%
4.54 22.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3% 2.12 47.2% 2.05 48.8% 2.00 50.0% 2.07 48.3%
X 3.15 31.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.21 31.2% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.15 31.8%
3.95 25.3% 4.10 24.4% 4.32 23.2% 3.60 27.8% 4.20 23.8% 4.45 22.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.83 54.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.90 52.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.90 52.6%
yes 1.91 52.4% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.85 54.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.77 56.5% 1.81 55.3% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.33 75.2% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.39 71.9%
home_draw 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.25 80.0% 1.20 83.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0%
Match center
Napoli
L W D D D
25.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:3 JuventusJuventus
17.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 SassuoloSassuolo
14.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
11.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 InterInter
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
1 Wins
3 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.4 Conceded
6 Points
Fiorentina
L W D D W
24.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 CagliariCagliari
18.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:1 BolognaBologna
11.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 AC MilanAC Milan
07.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 2:2 LazioLazio
04.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:0 CremoneseCremonese
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
8 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Fiorentina

Napoli
1 matches total
Fiorentina
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Fiorentina: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Napoli 3:1 (13.09 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (3:1, 13.09 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 1
1 Goals conceded 3

Match history

13.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli
3:1
Fiorentina