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Serie A
Serie A Italy
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
05.10.2025 16:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Genoa

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
2 : 1
Finished
Genoa
Genoa

Napoli take on Genoa on October 5, 2025 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Napoli 4-0-1, Genoa 0-2-3. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Napoli the favourite at about 65%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Genoa October 5, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.48 / X 3.99 / 2 8.26
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 64.6% / X 23.9% / Genoa 11.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5% 14 books · best price +3.4%
1 64.6%
X 23.8%
2 11.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 42.3%
Under 2.5 57.7%

Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 05.10.2025 16:00 UTC
Market 1 64.5% @ 1.48 / X 23.9% @ 3.99 / 2 11.6% @ 8.26
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Match center

Napoli - Genoa

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.31 market consensus · line only
X 4.00 market consensus · line only
1 1.48 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.69 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 1.09 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.72 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 7.25 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.47 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.66 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.54 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.40 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.47 68.0%
X 4.04 24.8%
8.96 11.2%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.47 68.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.52 65.8% 1.44 69.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.30 23.3% 4.14 24.2% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.00 25.0%
7.50 13.3% 7.90 12.7% 8.45 11.8% 7.50 13.3% 8.50 11.8% 9.50 10.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.57 63.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.55 64.5% 1.53 65.4% 1.51 66.2% 1.58 63.3%
yes 2.38 42.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.39 41.8% 2.30 43.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.37 42.2% 2.38 42.0% 2.39 41.8% 2.50 40.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.60 38.5% 2.71 36.9% 2.60 38.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.72 36.8% 2.73 36.6%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 1.08 92.6% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.09 91.7%
Match center
Napoli
L W W W W
28.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:2 AC MilanAC Milan
22.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:2 PisaPisa
13.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 3:1 FiorentinaFiorentina
30.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 CagliariCagliari
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 SassuoloSassuolo
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
12 Points
Genoa
L L D L D
29.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:3 LazioLazio
20.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:2 BolognaBologna
15.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Genoa 1:1 ComoComo
31.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:1 JuventusJuventus
23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Genoa 0:0 LecceLecce
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Genoa

Napoli
1 matches total
Genoa
Napoli: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Genoa: 0 (0%)
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 11.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (11.05 18:45 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

11.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli
2:2
Genoa

Frequently asked questions

When does Napoli vs Genoa start?

October 5, 2025.