Serie A
Serie A Italy
29.09.2024 18:45 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Monza

Italy Futbol
Napoli
Napoli
2 : 0
Finished
Monza
Monza

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Monza 29 сентября 2024

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.30 / X 5.70 / 2 11.52
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 74.6% / X 17.0% / Monza 8.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 55.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 3.1%
1 74.6%
X 17.0%
2 8.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.1%
Over 2.5 55.1%
Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 29.09.2024 18:45 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Monza

Form 2/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 5.70 market consensus · line only
1 1.30 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.82 market consensus · line only
12 1.17 market consensus · line only
1X 1.07 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.16 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.30 76.9%
Х 5.70 17.5%
П2 11.52 8.7%

Double chance

Outcome SStats Consensus
draw_away 3.82 26.2%
home_away 1.17 85.5%
home_draw 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome SStats Consensus
ТБ 2.5 1.76 56.8%
ТМ 2.5 2.16 46.3%

Home/Away

Outcome SStats Consensus
П1 1.09 91.7%
П2 9.39 10.7%
Match center
Napoli
D W
21.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 JuventusJuventus
15.09 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 4:0 CagliariCagliari
1 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
4 Points
Monza
L D D
22.09 13:00 UTC Serie A
Monza 1:2 BolognaBologna
15.09 18:45 UTC Serie A
Monza 1:1 InterInter
01.09 16:30 UTC Serie A
Monza 2:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
0 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Monza

Napoli
0 matches total
Monza
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history