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Serie A
Serie A Italy
17.01.2026 17:00 UTC Match prediction
17.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Napoli - Sassuolo

Italy Football
Napoli
Napoli
1 : 0
Finished
Sassuolo
Sassuolo

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Napoli - Sassuolo January 17, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.47 / X 4.20 / 2 7.49
  • 1X2 market: Napoli 64.6% / X 22.7% / Sassuolo 12.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%
1 64.7%
X 22.6%
2 12.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 47.4%
Under 2.5 52.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 17.01.2026 17:00 UTC
Match center

Napoli - Sassuolo

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.53 market consensus · line only
X 4.20 market consensus · line only
1 1.47 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.69 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 1.10 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.70 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.46 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.02 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.82 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.66 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.15 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.47 68.0%
X 4.28 23.4%
8.13 12.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.45 69.0% 1.47 68.0% 1.53 65.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.48 67.6% 1.52 65.8%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.30 23.3% 4.37 22.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.15 24.1%
7.20 13.9% 7.70 13.0% 7.60 13.2% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3% 7.80 12.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8%
yes 2.15 46.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.14 46.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.10 47.6% 2.07 48.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.12 47.2% 2.23 44.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.65 37.7% 2.70 37.0% 2.63 38.0% 2.62 38.2% 2.65 37.7% 2.70 37.0%
home_away 1.18 84.8% 1.25 80.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.23 81.3% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.09 91.7% 1.12 89.3% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.11 90.1%
Match center
Napoli
D D D W W
14.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
11.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 InterInter
07.01 17:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
04.01 11:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 LazioLazio
28.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CremoneseCremonese
2 Wins
3 Draws
0 Losses
1.6 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Sassuolo
L L D D L
10.01 17:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:2 AS RomaAS Roma
06.01 19:45 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:3 JuventusJuventus
03.01 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:1 ParmaParma
28.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 1:1 BolognaBologna
21.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Sassuolo 0:1 TorinoTorino
0 Wins
2 Draws
3 Losses
0.4 Scored
1.6 Conceded
2 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Sassuolo

Napoli
1 matches total
Sassuolo
Napoli: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Sassuolo: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Napoli 2:0 (23.08 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 2 goals (2:0, 23.08 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 2

Match history

23.08 16:30 UTC Serie A
Napoli
2:0
Sassuolo