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Serie A
Serie A Italy
30.08.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
30.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Parma - Atalanta

Italy Football
Parma
Parma
1 : 1
Finished
Atalanta
Atalanta

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Parma - Atalanta August 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atalanta.

Line favourite market consensus: Atalanta. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.40 / X 3.58 / 2 1.85
  • 1X2 market: Parma 21.8% / X 26.7% / Atalanta 51.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 50.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 21.7%
X 26.7%
2 51.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 50.3%
Under 2.5 49.7%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Parma - Atalanta

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.85 market consensus · line only
X 3.59 market consensus · line only
1 4.43 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.21 market consensus · line only
12 1.29 market consensus · line only
1X 2.00 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.25 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.05 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.81 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.45 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.91 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.93 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.77 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
4.81 20.8%
X 3.75 26.7%
1.80 55.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.45 22.5% 4.05 24.7% 4.74 21.1% 3.80 26.3% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.77 26.5% 3.25 30.8% 3.60 27.8% 3.75 26.7%
1.78 56.2% 1.96 51.0% 1.86 53.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 2.09 47.9% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.93 51.8% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.77 56.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.20 83.3% 1.23 81.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.21 82.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.27 78.7% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 2.00 50.0% 2.06 48.5% 1.80 55.6% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0%
Match center
Parma
L W D L L
24.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 JuventusJuventus
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 3:2 AtalantaAtalanta
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:0 NapoliNapoli
10.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:2 Empoli
03.05 13:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:1 ComoComo
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
Atalanta
D L W W W
24.08 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 1:1 PisaPisa
25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:3 ParmaParma
17.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 3:2 GenoaGenoa
12.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 2:1 AS RomaAS Roma
04.05 13:00 UTC Serie A
Atalanta 4:0 Monza
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.4 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParma - Atalanta

Parma
1 matches total
Atalanta
Parma: 1 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Atalanta: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Parma 3:2 (25.05 18:45 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 25.05 18:45 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

3 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 3

Match history

25.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma
3:2
Atalanta