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Serie A
Serie A Italy
27.12.2025 11:30 UTC Match prediction
27.12.2025 11:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Parma - Fiorentina

Italy Football
Parma
Parma
1 : 0
Finished
Fiorentina
Fiorentina

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Parma - Fiorentina December 27, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fiorentina.

Line favourite market consensus: Fiorentina. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.60 / X 3.19 / 2 2.16
  • 1X2 market: Parma 26.4% / X 29.8% / Fiorentina 43.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 54.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 26.3%
X 29.7%
2 43.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.9%
Over 2.5 45.8%
Under 2.5 54.2%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 27.12.2025 11:30 UTC
Match center

Parma - Fiorentina

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.16 market consensus · line only
X 3.20 market consensus · line only
1 3.62 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.30 market consensus · line only
12 1.35 market consensus · line only
1X 1.70 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.14 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.38 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.08 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.76 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.95 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.81 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
3.84 26.0%
X 3.34 29.9%
2.13 47.0%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.60 27.8% 3.80 26.3% 3.60 27.8% 3.40 29.4% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0%
X 3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.28 30.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.20 31.3%
2.12 47.2% 2.13 47.0% 2.31 43.3% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.12 47.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.95 51.3% 2.04 49.0% 1.94 51.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.92 52.1% 2.04 49.0%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.79 55.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.91 52.4% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.79 55.9% 1.84 54.4%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.28 78.1% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.33 75.2%
home_away 1.28 78.1% 1.39 71.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.38 72.5%
home_draw 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.75 57.1% 1.68 59.5%
Match center
Parma
L W L W D
13.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:1 LazioLazio
08.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:0 PisaPisa
29.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 UdineseUdinese
23.11 11:30 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:1 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
08.11 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 2:2 AC MilanAC Milan
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
7 Points
Fiorentina
W L L L D
21.12 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 5:1 UdineseUdinese
14.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:2 Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
06.12 14:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:3 SassuoloSassuolo
30.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 0:2 AtalantaAtalanta
22.11 17:00 UTC Serie A
Fiorentina 1:1 JuventusJuventus
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyParma - Fiorentina

Parma
1 matches total
Fiorentina
Parma: 0 (0%)
Draws:1 (100%)
Fiorentina: 0 (0%)
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw 0:0 (13.04 13:00 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

13.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Parma
0:0
Fiorentina