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Serie A Italy

35 round 03.05.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction

03.05.2026 13:00 UTC 35 round

Finished

Serie A

Sassuolo - AC Milan

Italy Football

Stadium Mapei

Referee F. Maresca

Sassuolo

2 : 0

Finished

AC Milan

Sassuolo take on AC Milan on May 3, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sassuolo 2-2-1, AC Milan 2-1-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards AC Milan, an implied 55% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 21% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Low confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

2 AC Milan — 53%

1 · Sassuolo21.3%

X · draw25.4%

2 · AC Milan53.2%

Model estimate: win Sassuolo 21.3%, draw 25.4%, win AC Milan 53.2%. Model favourite — AC Milan.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - AC Milan May 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AC Milan.

Strongest: AC Milan - market and Glicko agree

1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.57 / X 3.92 / 2 1.73
1X2 market: Sassuolo 20.8% / X 24.3% / AC Milan 55.0%
Glicko: Sassuolo 21.3% / X 25.4% / AC Milan 53.2%
Total 2.5: over probability 27.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.

1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2%

1 20.8%

X 24.3%

2 54.9%

Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.0%

Over 2.5 55.1%

Under 2.5 44.9%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Model consensus

Silnyy iskhod AI: 2

Main outcome

Agreement 6/6

Confidence 65.1%

Total Under 2.5

Score 0:1

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

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Match center

Stadium Mapey - Chitta-del-Trikolore (Redzho-nel-Emiliya, Italy), 19 361 zritel (82% pri vmestimosti 23 717)

Referee Fabio Mareska (Neapol)

Start 03.05.2026 13:00 UTC

Market 1 20.8% @ 4.57 / X 24.3% @ 3.92 / 2 54.9% @ 1.73

🥊 Humans vs Machines

📐 Math model AC Milan 53%

💹 Market AC Milan 5495%

Every pick locked before kickoff · public log

Match center

Sassuolo - AC Milan

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Sassuolo - Milan, 3 maya 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, tochnyy schet. Championship Italy po futbolu (Seriya A) 2025-2026, 35-y Round. Sassuolo - Milan, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games

H2H 1 head-to-head matches

Market 4 model / bookmakers

Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8

yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview

yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview

yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups

yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form

yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H

yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament

pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview

yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match

Post-match / SStats

Score 2:0

Events 21

Statistics 26

Lineups 47

min Event Player Team

5' 5' Normal Goal | D. Berardi D. Berardi Sassuolo

9' 9' Yellow Card | F. Tomori F. Tomori AC Milan

24' 24' Yellow Card | F. Tomori F. Tomori AC Milan

24' 24' Red Card | F. Tomori F. Tomori AC Milan

38' 38' Yellow Card | N. Matic N. Matić Sassuolo

40' 40' Substitution 1 | J. Idzes | assist/sub out: W. Coulibaly J. Idzes Sassuolo

46' 46' Substitution 2 | N. Matic | assist/sub out: L. Lipani N. Matić Sassuolo

46' 46' Substitution 1 | C. Nkunku | assist/sub out: Z. Athekame Christopher Nkunku AC Milan

Metric Sassuolo AC Milan SStats

Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.58 0.24 final

Zablokirovannye udary 4 1 final

Shots off target 5 5 final

Shots on target 4 1 final

Udary vsego 13 7 final

Fouls soversheno 16 16 final

Red cards 0 1 final

Zheltye kartochki 4 4 final

Sassuolo #13 S. Turati, #23 U. Garcia, #42 K. Thorstvedt, #45 A. Laurienté, #8 M'Bala Nzola, #18 N. Matić, #80 T. Muharemovic, #10 D. Berardi, #21 J. Idzes, #90 I. Kone, #6 S. Walukiewicz

AC Milan #2 P. EstupiG±GЎn, #10 R. Leao, #16 M. Maignan, #31 S. Pavlovic, #12 A. Rabiot, #18 Christopher Nkunku, #46 Matteo Gabbia, #23 F. Tomori, #30 A. Jashari, #19 Youssouf Fofana, #56 A. Saelemaekers

Player Team Metric SStats

A. Fadera Sassuolo football.player.assists 0

A. Fadera Sassuolo Dribling popytki 1

A. Fadera Sassuolo Edinoborstva vyigrano 1

A. Fadera Sassuolo Seyvy 0

A. Fadera Sassuolo football.player.minutes_played 10

A. Fadera Sassuolo Klyuchevye pasy 2

A. Fadera Sassuolo Bloki 1

A. Fadera Sassuolo Otbory vsego 2

A. Laurienté Sassuolo football.player.assists 1

A. Laurienté Sassuolo Dribling popytki 8

Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal

Sassuolo 20.9% 21.3%

Draw 23.3% 25.4% draw risk

AC Milan 55.8% 53.2% market and model agree

xG - 0.89 : 1.56

Total 2.5 Over 27.5% - Under 72.5%

Model check - - Difference 0.03

Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.03

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model

P1 / X / P2 21.3% / 25.4% / 53.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value

Rating 1,523 / 1,639 Sassuolo / AC Milan

RD 71 / 74 rating uncertainty

HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot

1X2

2 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 53.2%

X 3.92 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal

1 4.57 market consensus · no value · model 21.3%

Double chance

X2 1.19 market consensus · no value · model 78.7%

12 1.23 market consensus · no value · model 74.6%

1X 2.11 market consensus · no value · model 46.8%

Handicap

2 -0.5 1.20 market consensus · line only

2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only

2 +0.5 1.70 market consensus · line only

2 +1 2.24 market consensus · line only

Total

Over 2.5 1.73 market consensus · no value · model 27.5%

Under 2.5 2.12 market consensus · weak value +53.7% · model 72.5%

Both teams to score

No 2.10 market consensus · line only

Yes 1.68 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
	4.60 21.7%	4.78 20.9%	4.33 23.1%	4.50 22.2%	4.75 21.1%	4.60 21.7%
X	3.80 26.3%	4.16 24.0%	3.80 26.3%	4.00 25.0%	4.00 25.0%	3.90 25.6%
	1.70 58.8%	1.77 56.5%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.78 56.2%	1.75 57.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair	BetVictor	Marathonbet	Unibet
no	2.10 47.6%	2.08 48.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.07 48.3%	2.15 46.5%	2.05 48.8%	2.06 48.5%	2.14 46.7%
yes	1.70 58.8%	1.68 59.5%	1.67 59.9%	1.70 58.8%	1.70 58.8%	1.67 59.9%	1.67 59.9%	1.68 59.5%	1.66 60.2%

Double chance

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet	888Sport	Bet365	Betano	Betfair
draw_away	1.18 84.8%	1.23 81.3%	1.20 83.3%	1.18 84.8%	1.22 82.0%	1.17 85.5%
home_away	1.20 83.3%	1.27 78.7%	1.22 82.0%	1.22 82.0%	1.25 80.0%	1.22 82.0%
home_draw	2.10 47.6%	2.17 46.1%	2.15 46.5%	2.10 47.6%	2.12 47.2%	2.00 50.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome	10Bet	1xBet
Over 0.5	1.04 96.2%	1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0	—	1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25	—	1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5	1.25 80.0%	1.21 82.6%
Over 1.75	—	1.27 78.7%
Over 2.0	—	1.33 75.2%
Over 2.25	—	1.60 62.5%
Over 2.5	1.73 57.8%	1.78 56.2%
Over 3.5	2.80 35.7%	—
Over 4.5	5.25 19.1%	—
Under 0.5	10.00 10.0%	—
Under 1.5	3.95 25.3%	—
Under 2.5	2.10 47.6%	—
Under 3.5	1.42 70.4%	—
Under 4.5	1.15 87.0%	—

Match center

Sassuolo

Founded 1922

AC Milan

Founded 1899

Match center

Sassuolo

EP Edoardo Peranolo zsch

FK Fali Kande zsch

DB Daniel Boloka pz

DB Derril Bakolya pz

AC Milan

LM Luka Modrich pz

Sassuolo Founded: 1922

AC Milan Founded: 1899

Match center

Sassuolo

D W L W D

26.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 0:0 Fiorentina

17.04 16:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 2:1 Como

12.04 10:30 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:2 Genoa

04.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 2:1 Cagliari

21.03 19:45 UTC Serie A

Sassuolo 1:1 Juventus

2 Wins

2 Draws

1 Losses

1.2 Scored

1.0 Conceded

8 Points

AC Milan

D W L L W

26.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:0 Juventus

19.04 13:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 1:0 Hellas Verona

11.04 16:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:3 Udinese

06.04 18:45 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 0:1 Napoli

21.03 17:00 UTC Serie A

AC Milan 3:2 Torino

2 Wins

1 Draws

2 Losses

0.8 Scored

1.2 Conceded

7 Points

Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - AC Milan

Sassuolo

1 matches total

AC Milan

Sassuolo: 0 (0%)

Draws:1 (100%)

AC Milan: 0 (0%)

Biggest win — largest score margin

Highest-scoring match 4 goals (2:2, 14.12 11:30 UTC) most goals in a game

Highest-scoring draw 2:2 (14.12 11:30 UTC) draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

2 Goals scored 2

2 Goals conceded 2

Match history

14.12 11:30 UTC

Serie A

Sassuolo

2:2

AC Milan

Match center

Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.

Team 1 Sassuolo

Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket

Team 2 AC Milan

34 Games 34

13 Wins 19

7 Draws 10

14 Losses 5

41 Scored 48

44 Conceded 27

46 Points 67

84.88 Attacks 101.47

36.63 Dangerous attacks 48.19

0 Big chances 0

10.24 Shots on goal 13

3.65 Shots on target 4.26

eniya 0.06 Goly Domeniko Berardi Arman Lorente 1:0 5' Arman Lorente Kristian Torstvedt 2:0 47' Nakazaniya Fikayo Tomori 9' Fikayo Tomori 24' Nemanya Matich 38' Ulisses Garsiya 57' Samuele Richchi 71' Ruben Loftus-Chik 77' Kristian Volpato 89' Aliu Fadera 90+4'

Sassuolo Milan 34 Games 34 13 Wins 19 7 Draws 10 14 Losses 5 41 Scored 48 44 Conceded 27 46 Points 67 84.88 Attacks 101.47 36.63 Dangerous attacks 48.19 0 Big chances 0 10.24 Shots on goal 13 3.65 Udary v stvor 4.26 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 3.91 Uglovye 4.35 1.82 Offsaydy 1.82 11.97 Foly 9.94 44.82 % vladeniya myachom 52.38 2.15 Warnings 1.5 0.12 Sendoffs 0.06 Goly Domeniko Berardi Arman Lorente 1:0 5' Arman Lorente Kristian Torstvedt 2:0 47' Nakazaniya Fikayo Tomori 9' Fikayo Tomori 24' Nemanya Matich 38' Ulisses Garsiya 57' Samuele Richchi 71' Ruben Loftus-Chik 77' Kristian Volpato 89' Aliu Fadera 90+4'