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Serie A
Serie A Italy
23.08.2025 16:30 UTC Match prediction
23.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Sassuolo - Napoli

Italy Football
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
0 : 2
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sassuolo - Napoli August 23, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Napoli.

Line favourite market consensus: Napoli. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 5.58 / X 3.77 / 2 1.64
  • 1X2 market: Sassuolo 17.1% / X 25.2% / Napoli 57.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 51.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 17.0%
X 25.2%
2 57.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 48.7%
Under 2.5 51.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 23.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Match center

Sassuolo - Napoli

Form 0/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.65 market consensus · line only
X 3.77 market consensus · line only
1 5.61 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.15 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 2.26 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.03 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.64 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.14 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.97 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.87 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.83 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.92 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
6.04 16.6%
X 3.77 26.5%
1.67 59.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
5.50 18.2% 5.70 17.5% 5.77 17.3% 5.00 20.0% 5.75 17.4% 5.80 17.2%
X 3.75 26.7% 3.85 26.0% 3.94 25.4% 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0%
1.63 61.4% 1.64 61.0% 1.70 58.8% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.85 54.1% 1.84 54.4% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.81 55.3% 1.89 52.9%
yes 1.85 54.1% 1.97 50.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.91 52.4% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.97 50.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.15 87.0%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.26 79.4% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 2.20 45.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.27 44.1% 2.28 43.9%
Match center
Napoli
W D D W W
23.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 CagliariCagliari
18.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 0:0 ParmaParma
11.05 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:2 GenoaGenoa
03.05 16:00 UTC Serie A
Napoli 1:0 LecceLecce
27.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Napoli 2:0 TorinoTorino
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historySassuolo - Napoli

Sassuolo
0 matches total
Napoli
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history