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Serie A
Serie A Italy
18.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
18.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Udinese - Parma

Italy Futbol
Stadium Фриули
Udinese
Udinese
0 : 1
Finished
Parma
Parma
🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Udinese — 42%

1 · Udinese42.1%
X · draw29.3%
2 · Parma28.6%

Model estimate: win Udinese 42.1%, draw 29.3%, win Parma 28.6%. Model favourite — Udinese.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Udinese - Parma 18 апреля 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Udinese.

Strongest: Udinese - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 2.99 / 2 3.85
  • 1X2 market: Udinese 43.7% / X 31.7% / Parma 24.7%
  • Glicko: Udinese 42.1% / X 29.3% / Parma 28.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 36.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.5%
1 43.7%
X 31.7%
2 24.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 40.2%
Under 2.5 59.8%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

Лидер исходов AI: П1

Main outcome П1
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 43.2%
Total ТМ 2.5
Score 1:1

Модели не полностью совпадают, поэтому прогноз нужно сверять с рынком и линией.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: 100 RUB

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Stadium Фриули (Удине)

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🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Udinese 42%
💹 Market Udinese 4368%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Udinese - Parma

Udinese: Победа 2.20 Udinese: Ничья 3.00 Parma Победа: 3.75 Общий тотал голов больше 2.5: 2.38 Общий тотал голов меньше 2.5: 1.57 Индивидуальный тотал голов Udinese больше 1.5: 2.38 Индивидуальный тотал голов Udinese меньше 1.5: 1.53 Индивидуальный тотал голов Parma больше 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Mateo Pellegrino | assist/sub out: Nesta Elphege Parma
51' 51' Normal Goal | Nesta Elphege Parma
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Jakub Piotrowski | assist/sub out: Idrissa Gueye Lautaro Valenti Udinese
64' 64' Substitution 1 | Jakub Piotrowski | assist/sub out: Idrissa Gueye Lautaro Valenti Udinese
66' 66' Substitution 2 | AdriГЎn BernabГ© | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoГ±ez Dominik Szoboszlai Parma
66' 66' Substitution 3 | AdriГЎn BernabГ© | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoГ±ez Dominik Szoboszlai Parma
71' 71' Yellow Card | Nicolò Zaniolo D. Spence Udinese
72' 72' Substitution 4 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | assist/sub out: Nahuel Estévez O. Edouard Parma
Metric Udinese Parma SStats
Ожидаемые голы (xG) 1.13 1.23 final
Заблокированные удары 4 4 final
Удары мимо 9 5 final
Удары в створ 3 1 final
Удары всего 16 10 final
Фолы совершено 11 8 final
Желтые карточки 2 0 final
Офсайды 2 1 final
Udinese #8 Jesper Karlström, #10 N. Zaniolo, #11 H. Kamara, #14 Arthur Atta, #19 Kingsley Ehizibue, #24 J. Piotrowski, #27 Christian Kabasele, #28 Oumar Solet, #31 Thomas Kristensen, #32 J. Ekkelenkamp, #40 Maduka Okoye
Parma #3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye, #7 G. Strefezza, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #10 A. Bernabe, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #15 Enrico Delprato, #16 Mandela Keita, #31 Zion Suzuki, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bernabe Parma football.player.assists 0
A. Bernabe Parma Дриблинг попытки 7
A. Bernabe Parma Дриблинг успешно 3
A. Bernabe Parma Единоборства всего 1
A. Bernabe Parma Единоборства выиграно 12
A. Bernabe Parma Фолы совершено 4
A. Bernabe Parma Сейвы 0
A. Bernabe Parma football.player.minutes_played 66
A. Bernabe Parma Точность пасов % 2
A. Bernabe Parma Ключевые пасы 26
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Udinese 43.5% 42.1% market and model agree
Draw 31.6% 29.3% draw risk
Parma 24.9% 28.6%
xG - 1.20 : 0.93
Total 2.5 Over 36.6% - Under 63.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 - рейтинговая модель силы: сравнивает линию, историю и стабильность, но не дает гарантий.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.1% / 29.3% / 28.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,532 / 1,471 Udinese / Parma
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty
HFA: - HFA mu: - MoV: - N: N=1 P: glicko2_expected

Best value: value не найден

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.85 market consensus · no value · model 28.6%
X 2.99 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%
Double chance
X2 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 36.6%
Under 2.5 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 63.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.77 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.97 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
П1 2.16 46.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.18 45.9%
Х 3.00 33.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.06 32.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3%
П2 3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 4.09 24.5% 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1%
yes 1.93 51.8% 1.97 50.8% 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
ТБ 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.07 93.5%
ТБ 0.75 — — 1.09 91.7%
ТБ 1.0 — — 1.12 89.3%
ТБ 1.25 — — 1.27 78.7%
ТБ 1.5 1.42 70.4% — 1.42 70.4%
ТБ 1.75 — — 1.55 64.5%
ТБ 2.25 — 2.03 49.3% —
ТБ 2.5 2.25 44.4% — —
ТБ 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
ТБ 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
ТМ 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
ТМ 1.5 2.80 35.7% — —
ТМ 2.25 — 1.87 53.5% —
ТМ 2.5 1.62 61.7% — —
ТМ 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
ТМ 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Match center
Udinese
Founded 1896
Parma
Founded 1913
Match center
Udinese
W D W L D
11.04 16:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese 3:0 AC MilanAC Milan
06.04 10:30 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:0 ComoComo
20.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 2:0 GenoaGenoa
14.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Udinese 0:1 JuventusJuventus
07.03 17:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese 2:2 AtalantaAtalanta
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Parma
D D L L D
12.04 13:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 NapoliNapoli
04.04 18:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:1 LazioLazio
21.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:2 CremoneseCremonese
13.03 19:45 UTC Serie A
Parma 1:4 TorinoTorino
08.03 14:00 UTC Serie A
Parma 0:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyUdinese - Parma

Udinese
2 matches total
Parma
Udinese: 2 (100%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Parma: 0 (0%)
Biggest win Udinese 2:0 (29.11 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 16.09 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

5 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 5

Match history

29.11 14:00 UTC Serie A
Udinese
2:0
Parma
16.09 16:30 UTC Serie A
Udinese
3:2
Parma
Match center
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The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.