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AI verdict

AI pick Udinese win probability ~42% best odds 2.17

Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Udinese. Full breakdown below.

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Serie A
Serie A Italy
18.04.2026 13:00 UTC Match prediction Prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
18.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Finished

Serie A

Italy

Udinese vs Parma — Football prediction

Italy Football
Stadium Friuli
Udinese
Udinese
0 : 1
Finished
Parma
Parma

Udinese face Parma on April 18, 2026 in the Serie A, Italy.

Recent form (W-D-L): Udinese 2-2-1, Parma 0-3-2. These sides have met 2 times recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The market favourite is Udinese at roughly 44%. PropickAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 42% to win — broadly in line with the market. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PropickAI AI pick.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Udinese — 42%

1 · Udinese42.1%
X · draw29.3%
2 · Parma28.6%

Model estimate: win Udinese 42.1%, draw 29.3%, win Parma 28.6%. Model favourite — Udinese.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

🎯 Safe pick confident

Double chance — Udinese or draw 1.26

Model confidence 74% ~81% on our history

How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.

How we calculated thisModel, consensus and market breakdown

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Udinese - Parma April 18, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Udinese.

Strongest: Udinese - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.17 / X 2.99 / 2 3.85
  • 1X2 market: Udinese 43.7% / X 31.7% / Parma 24.7%
  • Glicko: Udinese 42.1% / X 29.3% / Parma 28.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 36.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9% 14 books · best price +3.7%
1 43.8%
X 31.7%
2 24.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 40.2%
Under 2.5 59.8%

Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, BetVictor). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 3/4
Confidence 43.2%
Total Under 2.5
Score 1:1

Modeli ne polnostyu sovpadayut, poetomu prognoz nuzhno sveryat s rynkom and liniey.

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Match center
Start 18.04.2026 13:00 UTC
Market 1 43.7% @ 2.17 / X 31.7% @ 2.99 / 2 24.6% @ 3.85
Stadium Friuli (Udine)

Chast faktov dobrana iz SStats.

🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Udinese 42%
💹 Market Udinese 44%
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Match center

Udinese - Parma

Udinese: win 2.20 Udinese: draw 3.00 Parma win: 3.75 Obschiy Total goals Over 2.5: 2.38 Obschiy Total goals Under 2.5: 1.57 Individualnyy Total goals Udinese Over 1.5: 2.38 Individualnyy Total goals Udinese Under 1.5: 1.53 Individualnyy Total goals Parma Over 0.5: …

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 2 head-to-head matches
Market 4 model / bookmakers
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 13
Statistics 24
Lineups 44
min Event Player Team
46' 46' Substitution 1 | Mateo Pellegrino | assist/sub out: Nesta Elphege Parma Kalcho
51' 51' Normal Goal | Nesta Elphege Parma Kalcho
64' 64' Substitution 2 | Jakub Piotrowski | assist/sub out: Idrissa Gueye Lautaro Valenti Udineze
64' 64' Substitution 1 | Jakub Piotrowski | assist/sub out: Idrissa Gueye Lautaro Valenti Udineze
66' 66' Substitution 2 | AdriGЎn BernabG© | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoG±ez Dominik Szoboszlai Parma Kalcho
66' 66' Substitution 3 | AdriGЎn BernabG© | assist/sub out: Christian OrdoG±ez Dominik Szoboszlai Parma Kalcho
71' 71' Yellow Card | Nicolò Zaniolo D. Spence Udineze
72' 72' Substitution 4 | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | assist/sub out: Nahuel Estévez O. Edouard Parma Kalcho
Metric Udinese Parma SStats
Ozhidaemye goly (xG) 1.13 1.23 final
Zablokirovannye udary 4 4 final
Shots off target 9 5 final
Shots on target 3 1 final
Udary vsego 16 10 final
Fouls soversheno 11 8 final
Zheltye kartochki 2 0 final
Offsides 2 1 final
Udinese #8 Jesper Karlström, #10 N. Zaniolo, #11 H. Kamara, #14 Arthur Atta, #19 Kingsley Ehizibue, #24 J. Piotrowski, #27 Christian Kabasele, #28 Oumar Solet, #31 Thomas Kristensen, #32 J. Ekkelenkamp, #40 Maduka Okoye
Parma #3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye, #7 G. Strefezza, #9 Mateo Pellegrino, #10 A. Bernabe, #14 Emanuele Valeri, #15 Enrico Delprato, #16 Mandela Keita, #31 Zion Suzuki, #37 Mariano Troilo, #39 Alessandro Circati, #41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Player Team Metric SStats
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho football.player.assists 0
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Dribling popytki 7
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Dribling uspeshno 3
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Edinoborstva vsego 1
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Edinoborstva vyigrano 12
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Fouls soversheno 4
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Seyvy 0
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho football.player.minutes_played 66
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Tochnost pasov % 2
A. Bernabe Parma Kalcho Klyuchevye pasy 26
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Udinese 43.5% 42.1% market and model agree
Draw 31.6% 29.3% draw risk
Parma 24.9% 28.6%
xG - 1.20 : 0.93
Total 2.5 Over 36.6% - Under 63.4%
Model check - - Difference 0.04
Draw-trap risk Favourite-trap risk Market vs Glicko gap: 0.04

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 42.1% / 29.3% / 28.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,532 / 1,471 Udinese / Parma
RD 72 / 73 rating uncertainty

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.85 market consensus · no value · model 28.6%
X 2.99 market consensus · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.17 market consensus · no value · model 42.1%
Double chance
X2 1.69 market consensus · no value · model 57.9%
12 1.37 market consensus · no value · model 70.7%
1X 1.26 market consensus · no value · model 71.4%
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.71 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.31 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 3.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 7.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.37 market consensus · no value · model 36.6%
Under 2.5 1.59 market consensus · no value · model 63.4%
Both teams to score
No 1.77 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.97 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.16 46.3% 2.20 45.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.10 47.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.18 45.9%
X 3.00 33.3% 3.15 31.8% 3.06 32.7% 3.00 33.3% 2.90 34.5% 3.00 33.3%
3.65 27.4% 3.75 26.7% 4.09 24.5% 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor Marathonbet
no 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.74 57.5% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1% 1.72 58.1%
yes 1.93 51.8% 1.97 50.8% 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair
draw_away 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9%
home_away 1.33 75.2% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.25 80.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.09 91.7% — 1.07 93.5%
Over 0.75 — — 1.09 91.7%
Over 1.0 — — 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.25 — — 1.27 78.7%
Over 1.5 1.42 70.4% — 1.42 70.4%
Over 1.75 — — 1.55 64.5%
Over 2.25 — 2.03 49.3% —
Over 2.5 2.25 44.4% — —
Over 3.5 4.20 23.8% — —
Over 4.5 8.50 11.8% — —
Under 0.5 7.00 14.3% — —
Under 1.5 2.80 35.7% — —
Under 2.25 — 1.87 53.5% —
Under 2.5 1.62 61.7% — —
Under 3.5 1.22 82.0% — —
Under 4.5 1.06 94.3% — —
Match center
Udinese
Founded 1896
Parma
Founded 1913
Match center
Udinese
W D W L D
11.04 16:00 UTC Seriya A
Udinese 3:0 MilanMilan
06.04 10:30 UTC Seriya A
Udinese 0:0 KomoKomo
20.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A
Udinese 2:0 DzhenoaDzhenoa
14.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A
Udinese 0:1 YuventusYuventus
07.03 17:00 UTC Seriya A
Udinese 2:2 AtalantaAtalanta
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
1.4 Scored
0.6 Conceded
8 Points
Parma
D D L L D
12.04 13:00 UTC Seriya A
Parma 1:1 NapoliNapoli
04.04 18:45 UTC Seriya A
Parma 1:1 LatsioLatsio
21.03 14:00 UTC Seriya A
Parma 0:2 CremoneseCremonese
13.03 19:45 UTC Seriya A
Parma 1:4 TorinoTorino
08.03 14:00 UTC Seriya A
Parma 0:0 FiorentinaFiorentina
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head history: Udinese - Parma

Udinese
2 matches total
Parma
Udinese: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
Parma: 2 (100%)
Biggest win Udineze 2:0 (29.11 14:00 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (3:2, 16.09 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

29.11 14:00 UTC Seriya A
Udineze
2:0
Parma Kalcho
16.09 16:30 UTC Seriya A
Udineze
3:2
Parma Kalcho
Match center
Season table: unavailable.

The tournament summary is shown from SStats while the donor comparison is not collected yet.

More predictions

Parma – Monza 06.09 Udinese – Lazio 07.09 Como – Parma 13.09 Inter – Udinese 14.09 Fiorentina – Torino 05.09 Inter – Napoli 05.09

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Udinese vs Parma?

By the PropickAI model, Udinese is favoured — about 42% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Udinese vs Parma?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Udinese. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

What are the bookmaker odds for Udinese vs Parma?

Live odds for Udinese vs Parma from multiple bookmakers are listed on this page and refresh as the market moves.

When does Udinese vs Parma start?

April 18, 2026.