Alianza San Salvador go head-to-head with Herediano on August 6, 2026 in the CONCACAF Central American Cup. Group stage.
Recent form (W-D-L): Alianza San Salvador 3-0-2, Herediano 2-3-0. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 32% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Low confidence
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
2Herediano — 39%
Pure model vs market (2 · Herediano): model 28% · market 39%Δ −11 ppmodel estimates below the market
39%2
1 · Alianza San Salvador32.0%
X · draw29.4%
2 · Herediano38.6%
Model estimate: win Alianza San Salvador 32.0%, draw 29.4%, win Herediano 38.6%. Model favourite — Herediano.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
🤖AI agent prediction
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
1Alianza San Salvador (odds1.75)Score 2:1confidence 57%✓ outcome correct
•Model backs Alyansa (Sal): probability 57% vs 57% on the line (odds 1.75)
•legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
•Expected score 2:1.
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
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Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Alianza San Salvador - Herediano August 6, 2026
Football math model
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Alianza San Salvador.
Line favourite Fonbet: Alianza San Salvador. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.08 / X 6.40 / 2 2.35
Glicko: Alianza San Salvador 32.0% / X 29.4% / Herediano 38.6%
%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 8.1%
3 books
130.8%
X29.8%
239.4%
Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
⚽
SStats data
Statistics and model
CONCACAF Central American Cup
League table
Alianza San Salvador
#53 ptsGP 11-0-02:1
Herediano
#111 ptsGP 10-1-00:0
Best price
across 11 books
13.00Dafabet
X3.70Bet365
22.32Dafabet
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
AI
Model consensus
AI outcome leader: 1
Main outcome
Agreement1/1
Confidence62.0%
Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.
🧮
Model prediction • nb-bet.com
Score prediction
Alianza San Salvador0:0Herediano
13.00
X3.08
22.26
Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source
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AI overview
AI predictions
AI analysis:2/7 ready· Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2
Google AIupdated04.08.2026 03:34 UTC
143%✓ favourite
X33%
224%
Score1:1Total goals: Under 2.5BTTS:NoBet:1X
Per AI dataForm:WLLWW / DDWDDH2H: 0-0Injuries:no
Claudeupdated04.08.2026 03:38 UTC
143%✓ favourite
X29%
228%
Score1:1Total goals: Under 3.5BTTS:YesBet:1X (Alyansa ne proigraet)
AI consensus:1
AI
1
X
2
Score
Total goals
BTTS
Bet
Google AI
43%
33%
24%
1:1
Under 2.5
No
1X
Claude
43%
29%
28%
1:1
Under 3.5
Yes
1X (Alyansa ne proigraet)
Buy the full AI analysis
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
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We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.
OptionSignalPrediction / actualRating
Glicko-2: base favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 38.6% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.699 / LogLoss 1.140
Glicko-2: calibrated favouriteAudit
internal check, not a public signal
Data: line, form, table
away - 38.6% fact: home
missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.699 / LogLoss 1.140
Market and Glicko
Football math model.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
OutcomeLineGlickoSignal
Alianza San Salvador30.8%32.0%
Draw29.8%29.4%draw risk
Herediano39.4%38.6%market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Football math model
P1 / X / P232.0% / 29.4% / 38.6%
outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating1,600 / 1,481
Alianza San Salvador / Herediano
RD291 / 291
rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD1,017-2,182 / 899-2,063
strength interval
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting snapshot
1X2
22.30
market consensus · no value · model 38.6%
X6.40
Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
11.08
Fonbet · no value · model 32.0%
Double chance
121.07
Fonbet · no value · model 70.6%
1X1.01
Fonbet · no value · model 61.4%
X25.90
Fonbet · weak value +301.4% · model 68.0%
Handicap
2 +11.55
market consensus · line only
2 09.00
Fonbet · line only
1 -12.25
market consensus · line only
1 01.03
Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.51.90
market consensus · line only
Under 2.51.01
Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No1.33
Fonbet · line only
Yes2.90
Fonbet · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
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