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North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: CONCACAF Central American Cup Standings
North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: CONCACAF Central American Cup Standings
28.07.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
28.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Finished

North I TsENTRALNAYa AMERIKA: CONCACAF Central American Cup Standings

Verdes San Ignacio - Motagua (Gon)

Football
V
Verdes San Ignacio
0 : 5
Finished
M
Motagua (Gon)
🎯 PropickAI prediction
Medium confidence

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

PropickAI model · comparison with the market line (no margin)

2 Motagua (Gon) — 73%

Pure model vs market (2 · Motagua (Gon)): model 33% · market 83% Δ −50 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Verdes San Ignacio8.4%
market6%
X · draw18.2%
market11%
2 · Motagua (Gon) ✓ Pick73.4%
market83%

Model estimate: win Verdes San Ignacio 8.4%, draw 18.2%, win Motagua (Gon) 73.4%. Model favourite — Motagua (Gon).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Verdes San Ignacio (odds1.92) Score 2:1 confidence 52% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Verdes (Blz): probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.92)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Verdes San Ignacio - Motagua (Gon) July 28, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Motagua (Gon).

Line favourite Fonbet: Motagua (Gon). We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 15.00 / X 8.00 / 2 1.09
  • Glicko: Verdes San Ignacio 8.4% / X 18.2% / Motagua (Gon) 73.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 10.9%
1 6.0%
X 11.3%
2 ✓ Pick 82.7%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 28.07.2026 22:00 UTC
Match center

Verdes San Ignacio - Motagua (Gon)

H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Match Participants Line
More needed
Form championat, soccer365, Flashscore
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:5
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 73.4% fact: away hit / ROI 22.0% / Brier 0.111 / LogLoss 0.309
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 73.4% fact: away hit / ROI 22.0% / Brier 0.111 / LogLoss 0.309
Glicko-2: public filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 73.4% fact: away hit / ROI 22.0% / Brier 0.111 / LogLoss 0.309
Glicko-2: precision filter Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, table away - 73.4% fact: away hit / ROI 22.0% / Brier 0.111 / LogLoss 0.309
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Verdes San Ignacio 6.1% 8.4%
Draw 17.9% 18.2% draw risk
Motagua (Gon) 76.0% 73.4% market and model agree
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 8.4% / 18.2% / 73.4% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,500 / 1,500 Verdes San Ignacio / Motagua (Gon)
RD 350 / 350 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 800-2,200 / 800-2,200 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 Fonbet · no value · model 73.4%
X 8.00 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
Double chance
12 1.05 Fonbet · no value · model 81.8%
1X 5.60 Fonbet · no value · model 26.6%
X2 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 91.6%
Handicap
2 +1 1.15 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
1 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.33 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.95 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.05 Fonbet · line only
Yes 7.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.05 95.2% 1.91 52.4%
yes 7.00 14.3% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.11 90.1% 1.13 88.5% 1.05 95.2%
1x 3.74 26.7% 3.80 26.3% 5.60 17.9%
x2 1.01 99.0% 1.03 97.1% 1.01 99.0%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
8.60 11.6%
X 2.73 36.6%
1.60 62.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 1.87 53.5%
Under 1.5 1.83 54.6%