AI verdict
Model consensus and the Glicko-2 rating lean to Celta. Full breakdown below.
Picks locked before kickoff results verified after public accuracy log →
27.08.2026 18:30 UTC
Spain: Primera
Celta face Osasuna on August 27, 2026 in the Spain: Primera.
Recent form (W-D-L): Celta 2-3-0, Osasuna 2-1-2. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PropickAI AI breakdown.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Celta — 52%
Model estimate: win Celta 52.1%, draw 19.4%, win Osasuna 28.5%. Model favourite — Celta.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Double chance — Celta or draw 1.25
How often this pick wins on our settled history — not a profit forecast.
Math-model prediction
The summary is built from our prematch context: line, form, lineups and Glicko.
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)Odds source: Fonbet line. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
For reference
↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.
SStats data
Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.
Form over 10 matches (SStats)Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.
Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.
Market consensus
Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.
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Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| no | 1.83 54.6% |
| yes | 1.93 51.8% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| 12 | 1.30 76.9% |
| 1x | 1.25 80.0% |
| x2 | 1.80 55.6% |
| Outcome | Fonbet | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 94.3% | — | |
| 1.04 96.2% | — | |
| 3.00 33.3% | — | |
| 3.95 25.3% | — | |
| 6.60 15.2% | — | |
| 7.60 13.2% | — | |
| 1.45 69.0% | 1.44 69.4% | |
| 6.90 14.5% | — | |
| 8.00 12.5% | — | |
| 1.35 74.1% | — | |
| 1.20 83.3% | — | |
| 1.06 94.3% | — | |
| 1.05 95.2% | — | |
| 2.75 36.4% | 2.58 38.8% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.06 94.3% |
| Over 1 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 2 | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 | 2.13 47.0% |
| Over 3 | 3.05 32.8% |
| Over 3.5 | 3.85 26.0% |
| Over 4 | 5.60 17.9% |
| Over 4.5 | 6.30 15.9% |
| Under 0.5 | 6.80 14.7% |
| Under 1 | 5.80 17.2% |
| Under 1.5 | 2.85 35.1% |
| Under 2 | 2.25 44.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 1.72 58.1% |
| Under 3 | 1.32 75.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 1.22 82.0% |
| Under 4 | 1.09 91.7% |
| Under 4.5 | 1.07 93.5% |
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pari | 2.02 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Winline | 2.01 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Fonbet | 2.02 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Betcity | 2.02 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Liga Stavok | 2 | 3.35 | 3.8 |
Celta
Full head-to-head history: Celta - Osasuna
The Celta - Osasuna breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
August 27, 2026.
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