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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Atalanta - Chelsea

World Football
Atalanta
Atalanta
2 : 1
Finished
Chelsea
Chelsea

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Atalanta - Chelsea December 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Line favourite market consensus: Chelsea. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.38 / X 3.46 / 2 2.15
  • 1X2 market: Atalanta 28.2% / X 27.5% / Chelsea 44.3%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.0%
1 28.2%
X 27.5%
2 44.3%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.7%
Over 2.5 52.7%
Under 2.5 47.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Market 1 28.2% @ 3.38 / X 27.5% @ 3.46 / 2 44.3% @ 2.15
Match center

Atalanta - Chelsea

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.15 market consensus · line only
X 3.46 market consensus · line only
1 3.38 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.33 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.72 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.11 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.11 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.14 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.19 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.64 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
3.35 29.9% 3.45 29.0% 3.48 28.7% 3.20 31.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.40 29.4%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.55 28.2% 3.61 27.7% 3.30 30.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
2.12 47.2% 2.12 47.2% 2.22 45.1% 2.00 50.0% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.23 44.8% 2.19 45.7% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.16 46.3% 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.66 60.2% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.58 63.3%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1% 1.35 74.1%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.34 74.6%
home_draw 1.70 58.8% 1.74 57.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 1.28 78.1%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6% 1.87 53.5%
Over 2.75 2.04 49.0%
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3%
Over 4.5 5.75 17.4%
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5%
Under 1.5 3.65 27.4%
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0% 2.03 49.3%
Under 2.75 1.86 53.8%
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5%
Under 4.5 1.13 88.5%
Match center
Atalanta
W W D W L
26.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atalanta 3:0 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
05.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atalanta 1:0 MarseilleMarseille
22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atalanta 0:0 Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha
30.09 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atalanta 2:1 Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atalanta 0:4 Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points
Chelsea
W D W W L
25.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 3:0 BarselonaBarselona
05.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 2:2 QarabagQarabag
22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 5:1 AjaxAjax
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 1:0 BenficaBenfica
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 1:3 BavariyaBavariya
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.4 Scored
1.2 Conceded
10 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyAtalanta - Chelsea

Atalanta
0 matches total
Chelsea
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history