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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
09.12.2025 17:45 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Bayern München - Sporting CP

World Football
Bayern München
Bayern München
3 : 1
Finished
Sporting CP
Sporting CP

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Bayern München - Sporting CP December 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Bayern München.

Line favourite market consensus: Bayern München. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.24 / X 6.68 / 2 11.25
  • 1X2 market: Bayern München 77.1% / X 14.4% / Sporting CP 8.5%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 67.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5%
1 77.2%
X 14.3%
2 8.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 67.7%
Under 2.5 32.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.12.2025 17:45 UTC
Market 1 77.2% @ 1.24 / X 14.3% @ 6.68 / 2 8.5% @ 11.25
Match center

Bayern München - Sporting CP

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 10.00 market consensus · line only
X 6.68 market consensus · line only
1 1.24 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 4.12 market consensus · line only
12 1.12 market consensus · line only
1X 1.05 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.05 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.29 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 8.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.93 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.92 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.84 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
1.23 81.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.22 82.0%
X 6.00 16.7% 6.70 14.9% 6.81 14.7% 7.00 14.3% 6.50 15.4% 7.00 14.3%
12.50 8.0% 10.50 9.5% 12.20 8.2% 11.00 9.1% 11.75 8.5% 12.00 8.3%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 1.90 52.6% 1.97 50.8% 1.89 52.9% 1.95 51.3% 1.93 51.8% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5% 1.93 51.8% 1.86 53.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.83 54.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.83 54.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.91 52.4% 1.90 52.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 4.00 25.0% 4.18 23.9% 4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.25 23.5% 4.32 23.2%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.14 87.7% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.13 88.5%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5% 1.05 95.2% 1.07 93.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% 1.06 94.3%
Over 1.75 1.08 92.6%
Over 2.5 1.42 70.4%
Over 3.25 1.84 54.4%
Over 3.5 2.05 48.8% 2.04 49.0%
Over 4.5 3.35 29.9%
Over 5.5 5.75 17.4%
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4%
Under 2.5 2.80 35.7%
Under 3.25 2.06 48.5%
Under 3.5 1.75 57.1% 1.86 53.8%
Under 4.5 1.30 76.9%
Under 5.5 1.12 89.3%
Match center
Bayern München
L W W W W
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4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
3.0 Scored
1.2 Conceded
12 Points
Sporting CP
W D W L W
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3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
10 Points