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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
10.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Benfica - Napoli

World Football
Benfica
Benfica
2 : 0
Finished
Napoli
Napoli

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Benfica - Napoli December 10, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Benfica.

Line favourite market consensus: Benfica. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.60 / X 3.09 / 2 2.89
  • 1X2 market: Benfica 36.5% / X 30.7% / Napoli 32.8%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.0%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.4%
1 36.5%
X 30.7%
2 32.8%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.2%
Over 2.5 40.0%
Under 2.5 60.0%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 10.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Market 1 36.5% @ 2.60 / X 30.7% @ 3.09 / 2 32.8% @ 2.89
Match center

Benfica - Napoli

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.89 market consensus · line only
X 3.09 market consensus · line only
1 2.60 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.50 market consensus · line only
12 1.37 market consensus · line only
1X 1.42 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.51 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.79 market consensus · line only
2 +1 5.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.40 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 1.60 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.78 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.98 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.60 38.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.68 37.3% 2.50 40.0% 2.60 38.5% 2.62 38.2%
X 3.05 32.8% 3.15 31.8% 3.18 31.5% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.10 32.3%
2.88 34.7% 2.80 35.7% 3.05 32.8% 2.90 34.5% 2.88 34.7% 2.87 34.8%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.77 56.5% 1.92 52.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.75 57.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.83 54.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.82 55.0%
yes 1.95 51.3% 1.89 52.9% 1.99 50.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0% 1.98 50.5% 1.91 52.4% 1.99 50.3% 2.06 48.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.48 67.6% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.52 65.8%
home_away 1.30 76.9% 1.41 70.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.36 73.5% 1.35 74.1% 1.40 71.4%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.43 69.9% 1.40 71.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.43 69.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.10 90.9% 1.06 94.3%
Over 0.75 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.0 1.10 90.9%
Over 1.25 1.27 78.7%
Over 1.5 1.48 67.6%
Over 2.25 1.96 51.0%
Over 2.5 2.40 41.7% 2.04 49.0%
Over 3.5 4.50 22.2%
Over 4.5 9.00 11.1%
Under 0.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 1.5 2.65 37.7%
Under 2.25 1.94 51.6%
Under 2.5 1.55 64.5% 1.86 53.8%
Under 3.5 1.20 83.3%
Under 4.5 1.05 95.2%
Match center
Benfica
W L L L L
25.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 2:0 AjaxAjax
05.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 0:1 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 0:3 NyukaslNyukasl
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 0:1 ChelseaChelsea
16.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 2:3 QarabagQarabag
1 Wins
0 Draws
4 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.6 Conceded
3 Points
Napoli
W D L W L
25.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Napoli 2:0 QarabagQarabag
04.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Napoli 0:0 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Napoli 2:6 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
01.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Napoli 2:1 Sporting CPSporting CP
18.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Napoli 0:2 Manchester CityManchester City
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBenfica - Napoli

Benfica
0 matches total
Napoli
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history