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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
16.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Benfica - Qarabag

World Football
Benfica
Benfica
2 : 3
Finished
Qarabag
Qarabag

Benfica go head-to-head with Qarabag on September 16, 2025 in the UEFA Champions League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Benfica 2-0-1, Qarabag 2-0-1. The market favourite is Benfica at roughly 78%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Benfica - Qarabag September 16, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Benfica.

Line favourite market consensus: Benfica. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.22 / X 6.50 / 2 13.67
  • 1X2 market: Benfica 78.3% / X 14.7% / Qarabag 7.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 61.5%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.5% 15 books · best price +1.6%
1 78.2%
X 14.7%
2 7.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 61.5%
Under 2.5 38.5%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 78.3% @ 1.22 / X 14.7% @ 6.50 / 2 7.0% @ 13.67
Match center

Benfica - Qarabag

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
X 6.51 market consensus · line only
1 1.22 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 4.26 market consensus · line only
12 1.11 market consensus · line only
1X 1.04 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 4.28 market consensus · line only
2 -1 3.50 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
1 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.46 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.65 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.17 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.23 81.3%
X 6.54 15.3%
12.71 7.9%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3% 1.24 80.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.24 80.7%
X 6.40 15.6% 6.70 14.9% 6.92 14.5% 6.00 16.7% 6.50 15.4% 6.90 14.5%
13.00 7.7% 12.50 8.0% 15.00 6.7% 13.00 7.7% 15.00 6.7% 14.00 7.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 1.65 60.6% 1.69 59.2% 1.64 61.0% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.70 58.8% 1.63 61.4% 1.63 61.4%
yes 2.10 47.6% 2.18 45.9% 2.14 46.7% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.29 43.7% 2.14 46.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 4.20 23.8% 4.52 22.1% 4.33 23.1% 4.00 25.0% 4.35 23.0% 3.90 25.6%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.14 87.7% 1.13 88.5% 1.11 90.1% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9%
home_draw 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1% 1.05 95.2% 1.04 96.2%
Match center
Benfica
W W L
27.08 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 1:0 FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
12.08 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 2:0 NiceNice
23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Benfica 1:3 FeyenoordFeyenoord
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Qarabag
L W W
27.08 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Qarabag 2:3 FerentsvaroshFerentsvarosh
12.08 16:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Qarabag 5:1 ShkendijaShkendija
30.07 16:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Qarabag 1:0 ShelbourneShelbourne
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.7 Scored
1.3 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyBenfica - Qarabag

Benfica
0 matches total
Qarabag
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history