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Start
28.01.2026 20:00 UTC
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28.01.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Benfica - Real Madrid
4
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Benfica - Real Madrid January 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.
Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.03 / X 4.09 / 2 1.80
- 1X2 market: Benfica 23.7% / X 23.3% / Real Madrid 53.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 64.0%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.8%
1
23.7%
X
23.3%
2
53.0%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.3%
Over 2.5
64.0%
Under 2.5
36.0%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Benfica - Real Madrid
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
1.80
market consensus · line only
X
4.09
market consensus · line only
1
4.03
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.25
market consensus · line only
12
1.24
market consensus · line only
1X
2.02
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.26
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.06
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
1.80
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.37
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.47
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
2.61
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.57
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.47
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% | 4.22 23.7% | 3.80 26.3% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.00 25.0% | |
| X | 3.95 25.3% | 4.25 23.5% | 4.26 23.5% | 3.90 25.6% | 4.10 24.4% | 4.20 23.8% |
| 1.76 56.8% | 1.76 56.8% | 1.84 54.4% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.87 53.5% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.55 39.2% | 2.54 39.4% | 2.59 38.6% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.50 40.0% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.63 38.0% | 2.55 39.2% | 2.70 37.0% |
| yes | 1.48 67.6% | 1.52 65.8% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.50 66.7% | 1.47 68.0% | 1.44 69.4% | 1.45 69.0% | 1.50 66.7% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.22 82.0% | 1.27 78.7% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.26 79.4% |
| home_away | 1.20 83.3% | 1.26 79.4% | 1.25 80.0% | 1.22 82.0% | 1.24 80.7% | 1.26 79.4% |
| home_draw | 2.00 50.0% | 2.08 48.1% | 1.95 51.3% | 1.91 52.4% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.07 48.3% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.03 97.1% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.17 85.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.48 67.6% | — | — |
| Over 3.0 | — | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Over 3.25 | — | 2.05 48.8% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 2.20 45.5% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 3.70 27.0% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 6.50 15.4% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.00 9.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 5.00 20.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 2.60 38.5% | — | — |
| Under 3.0 | — | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| Under 3.25 | — | 1.85 54.1% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.65 60.6% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.25 80.0% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.10 90.9% | — | — |
Match center
Benfica
L
W
W
L
L
Benfica
0:2
Juventus
Juventus
Benfica
2:0
Napoli
Napoli
Benfica
2:0
Ajax
Ajax
Benfica
0:1
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Benfica
0:3
Nyukasl
Nyukasl
2
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
0.8
Scored
1.2
Conceded
6
Points
Real Madrid
W
L
W
L
W
Real Madrid
6:1
Monaco
Monaco
Real Madrid
1:2
Manchester City
Manchester City
Real Madrid
4:3
Olympiakos Piraeus
Real Madrid
0:1
Liverpul
Liverpul
Real Madrid
1:0
Juventus
Juventus
3
Wins
0
Draws
2
Losses
2.4
Scored
1.4
Conceded
9
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyBenfica - Real Madrid
Benfica
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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