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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
22.10.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Chelsea - Ajax

World Football
Chelsea
Chelsea
5 : 1
Finished
Ajax
Ajax

Chelsea take on Ajax on October 22, 2025 in the UEFA Champions League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Chelsea 1-0-1, Ajax 0-0-2. The market favourite is Chelsea at roughly 71%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Chelsea - Ajax October 22, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.

Line favourite Fonbet: Chelsea. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.35 / X 5.60 / 2 8.00
  • 1X2 market: Chelsea 70.9% / X 17.1% / Ajax 12.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 65.1%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.4%
1 70.9%
X 17.1%
2 12.0%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.0%
Over 2.5 65.1%
Under 2.5 34.9%

Odds source: Fonbet. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 22.10.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 70.9% @ 1.35 / X 17.1% @ 5.60 / 2 12.0% @ 8.00
Match center

Chelsea - Ajax

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 8.00 Fonbet · line only
X 5.60 Fonbet · line only
1 1.35 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 3.20 Fonbet · line only
12 1.14 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.08 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.27 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.50 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 6.85 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.33 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.70 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.10 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.31 76.3% 1.25 80.0% 1.37 73.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.30 76.9% 1.37 73.0%
X 5.60 17.9% 6.60 15.2% 5.82 17.2% 5.50 18.2% 5.75 17.4% 5.70 17.5%
8.30 12.1% 10.00 10.0% 8.85 11.3% 8.50 11.8% 9.00 11.1% 8.25 12.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.04 49.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.05 48.8% 1.98 50.5%
yes 1.70 58.8% 1.76 56.8% 1.71 58.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.72 58.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.75 57.1% 1.71 58.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 3.20 31.3% 3.38 29.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.40 29.4% 3.30 30.3% 3.10 32.3%
home_away 1.10 90.9% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.14 87.7% 1.15 87.0% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 1.07 93.5% 1.08 92.6% 1.08 92.6% 1.07 93.5% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.5 1.12 89.3% 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.75 1.11 90.1%
Over 2.5 1.44 69.4%
Over 3.25 1.86 53.8%
Over 3.5 2.10 47.6% 1.99 50.3%
Over 4.5 3.55 28.2%
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 1.5 5.75 17.4%
Under 2.5 2.75 36.4%
Under 3.25 2.04 49.0%
Under 3.5 1.70 58.8% 1.91 52.4%
Under 4.5 1.28 78.1%
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Chelsea
W L
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 1:0 BenficaBenfica
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Chelsea 1:3 BavariyaBavariya
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
3 Points
Ajax
L L
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Ajax 0:4 MarseilleMarseille
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Ajax 0:2 InterInter
0 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.0 Scored
3.0 Conceded
0 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyChelsea - Ajax

Chelsea
0 matches total
Ajax
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history