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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
30.09.2025 16:45 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Kairat Almaty - Real Madrid

World Football
Kairat Almaty
Kairat Almaty
0 : 5
Finished
Real Madrid
Real Madrid

Kairat Almaty go head-to-head with Real Madrid on September 30, 2025 in the UEFA Champions League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Kairat Almaty 0-1-2, Real Madrid 2-0-2. The market favourite is Real Madrid at roughly 88%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Kairat Almaty - Real Madrid September 30, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 25.62 / X 11.91 / 2 1.09
  • 1X2 market: Kairat Almaty 3.8% / X 8.1% / Real Madrid 88.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 75.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.2% 10 books · best price +1.4%
1 4.1%
X 8.3%
2 87.6%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.5%
Over 2.5 75.2%
Under 2.5 24.8%

Odds source: consensus of 10 books (10Bet, 188Bet, Bet365, Marathonbet, Pinnacle, SBO). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 30.09.2025 16:45 UTC
Market 1 3.8% @ 25.62 / X 8.1% @ 11.91 / 2 88.2% @ 1.09
Match center

Kairat Almaty - Real Madrid

Form 3/4 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.09 market consensus · line only
X 10.00 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.02 market consensus · line only
12 1.05 market consensus · line only
1X 7.93 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.10 market consensus · line only
2 +1 1.10 market consensus · line only
1 +0.5 7.10 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.26 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 3.82 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.66 market consensus · line only
Yes 2.15 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
27.00 3.7%
X 14.00 7.1%
1.08 92.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
20.00 5.0% 21.00 4.8% 31.00 3.2% 23.00 4.4% 32.00 3.1% 34.00 2.9%
X 10.75 9.3% 11.50 8.7% 13.00 7.7% 12.00 8.3% 12.50 8.0% 12.00 8.3%
1.09 91.7% 1.09 91.7% 1.10 90.9% 1.08 92.6% 1.09 91.7% 1.08 92.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Superbet
no 1.62 61.7% 1.71 58.5% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7% 1.66 60.2% 1.66 60.2% 1.68 59.5%
yes 2.15 46.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.09 47.9% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.09 47.9% 2.27 44.1% 2.15 46.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.02 98.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.01 99.0% 1.02 98.0% 1.00 100.0% 1.02 98.0%
home_away 1.04 96.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.05 95.2% 1.06 94.3%
home_draw 7.00 14.3% 8.30 12.1% 8.00 12.5% 8.25 12.1% 8.10 12.4% 8.85 11.3%
Match center
Kairat Almaty
L D L
18.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Kairat Almaty 1:4 Sporting CPSporting CP
26.08 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Kairat Almaty 0:0 CelticCeltic
12.08 18:15 UTC UEFA Champions League
Kairat Almaty 0:1 Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava
0 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
1 Points
Real Madrid
W L W L
16.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2:1 MarseilleMarseille
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1:2 ArsenalArsenal
22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 5:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
02.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 0:1 LilleLille
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
6 Points