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Start
28.01.2026 20:00 UTC
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28.01.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Napoli - Chelsea
2
:
3
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Napoli - Chelsea January 28, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Chelsea.
Line favourite market consensus: Chelsea. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.52 / X 3.54 / 2 2.08
- 1X2 market: Napoli 27.2% / X 26.9% / Chelsea 45.9%
- Total 2.5: over probability 51.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 4.7%
1
27.1%
X
27.0%
2
45.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 4.0%
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Napoli - Chelsea
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
2.08
market consensus · line only
X
3.54
market consensus · line only
1
3.52
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
1.30
market consensus · line only
12
1.30
market consensus · line only
1X
1.78
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
1.33
market consensus · line only
2 -1
1.11
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
2.02
market consensus · line only
2 +1
2.95
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.86
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
1.99
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.11
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.69
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75 26.7% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.74 26.7% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | |
| X | 3.50 28.6% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.70 27.0% | 3.40 29.4% | 3.60 27.8% | 3.50 28.6% |
| 1.93 51.8% | 2.15 46.5% | 2.09 47.9% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.05 48.8% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.10 47.6% | 2.26 44.3% | 2.08 48.1% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.00 50.0% | 2.10 47.6% | 2.05 48.8% | 2.06 48.5% | 2.21 45.3% |
| yes | 1.70 58.8% | 1.64 61.0% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.70 58.8% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.67 59.9% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.68 59.5% | 1.72 58.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.31 76.3% | 1.31 76.3% |
| home_away | 1.25 80.0% | 1.32 75.8% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.28 78.1% | 1.30 76.9% | 1.32 75.8% |
| home_draw | 1.80 55.6% | 1.82 55.0% | 1.75 57.1% | 1.73 57.8% | 1.80 55.6% | 1.82 55.0% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 95.2% | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 0.75 | — | — | 1.00 100.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.25 | — | — | 1.12 89.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.28 78.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 1.83 54.6% | 1.84 54.4% | — |
| Over 2.75 | — | 2.02 49.5% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.75 17.4% | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.00 11.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 3.60 27.8% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 1.95 51.3% | 2.06 48.5% | — |
| Under 2.75 | — | 1.88 53.2% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.36 73.5% | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.12 89.3% | — | — |
Match center
Napoli
D
L
W
D
L
Napoli
1:1
FC Copenhagen
FC Copenhagen
Napoli
0:2
Benfica
Benfica
Napoli
2:0
Qarabag
Qarabag
Napoli
0:0
Eintracht Frankfurt
Eintracht Frankfurt
Napoli
2:6
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
1
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
1.0
Scored
1.8
Conceded
5
Points
Chelsea
W
L
W
D
W
Chelsea
1:0
Pafos
Pafos
Chelsea
1:2
Atalanta
Atalanta
Chelsea
3:0
Barselona
Barselona
Chelsea
2:2
Qarabag
Qarabag
Chelsea
5:1
Ajax
Ajax
3
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2.4
Scored
1.0
Conceded
10
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyNapoli - Chelsea
Napoli
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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