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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid

World Football
PSV Eindhoven
PSV Eindhoven
2 : 3
Finished
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid December 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Atletico Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Atletico Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.91 / X 3.75 / 2 2.29
  • 1X2 market: PSV Eindhoven 32.9% / X 25.5% / Atletico Madrid 41.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 63.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.7%
1 32.8%
X 25.5%
2 41.7%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.6%
Over 2.5 63.6%
Under 2.5 36.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Market 1 32.8% @ 2.91 / X 25.5% @ 3.75 / 2 41.7% @ 2.29
Match center

PSV Eindhoven - Atletico Madrid

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.29 market consensus · line only
X 3.75 market consensus · line only
1 2.91 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.42 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 1.65 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.42 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.16 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.24 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.32 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.49 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.60 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.76 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.42 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.88 34.7% 2.96 33.8% 3.02 33.1% 2.88 34.7% 2.95 33.9% 2.90 34.5%
X 3.70 27.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.86 25.9% 3.75 26.7% 3.70 27.0% 3.75 26.7%
2.28 43.9% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.30 43.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 2.75 36.4% 2.83 35.3% 2.73 36.6% 2.62 38.2% 2.75 36.4% 2.80 35.7% 2.69 37.2% 2.92 34.3% 2.80 35.7%
yes 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.44 69.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.41 70.9% 1.45 69.0% 1.41 70.9%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.40 71.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.44 69.4%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.25 80.0% 1.27 78.7% 1.31 76.3% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.68 59.5% 1.67 59.9%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.0 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.5 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.5 1.48 67.6%
Over 3.0 1.82 55.0%
Over 3.25 1.98 50.5%
Over 3.5 2.15 46.5%
Over 4.5 3.60 27.8%
Over 5.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0%
Under 1.5 5.25 19.1%
Under 2.5 2.60 38.5%
Under 3.0 2.08 48.1%
Under 3.25 1.92 52.1%
Under 3.5 1.67 59.9%
Under 4.5 1.28 78.1%
Under 5.5 1.10 90.9%
Match center
PSV Eindhoven
W D W D L
26.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven 4:1 LiverpulLiverpul
04.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven 1:1 Olympiakos Piraeus
21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven 6:2 NapoliNapoli
01.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven 1:1 Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen
16.09 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
PSV Eindhoven 1:3 Union St. Gilloise
2 Wins
2 Draws
1 Losses
2.6 Scored
1.6 Conceded
8 Points
Atletico Madrid
W W L W L
26.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 2:1 InterInter
04.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 3:1 Union St. Gilloise
21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 0:4 ArsenalArsenal
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 5:1 Eintracht FrankfurtEintracht Frankfurt
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Atletico Madrid 2:3 LiverpulLiverpul
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.4 Scored
2.0 Conceded
9 Points