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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
16.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid - Marseille

World Football
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
2 : 1
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Real Madrid face Marseille on September 16, 2025 in the UEFA Champions League, World.

The market favourite is Real Madrid at roughly 69%. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Real Madrid - Marseille September 16, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Real Madrid.

Line favourite market consensus: Real Madrid. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.37 / X 5.37 / 2 7.31
  • 1X2 market: Real Madrid 69.2% / X 17.8% / Marseille 13.0%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 65.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8% 15 books · best price +4.4%
1 69.1%
X 17.7%
2 13.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 6.2%
Over 2.5 65.9%
Under 2.5 34.1%

Odds source: consensus of 15 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 16.09.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 69.3% @ 1.37 / X 17.7% @ 5.37 / 2 13.0% @ 7.31
Match center

Real Madrid - Marseille

Form 4/0 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

2/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
pending Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 7.35 market consensus · line only
X 5.39 market consensus · line only
1 1.37 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 3.06 market consensus · line only
12 1.16 market consensus · line only
1X 1.10 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 3.14 market consensus · line only
2 -1 2.44 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 6.55 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.43 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.76 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.16 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.66 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.35 74.1%
X 5.73 17.5%
7.96 12.6%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.38 72.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.43 69.9% 1.36 73.5% 1.38 72.5% 1.40 71.4%
X 5.20 19.2% 5.60 17.9% 5.42 18.5% 5.00 20.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.60 17.9%
7.00 14.3% 7.30 13.7% 7.47 13.4% 7.00 14.3% 7.00 14.3% 7.40 13.5%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Dafabet Marathonbet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.22 45.1% 2.18 45.9% 2.15 46.5% 2.10 47.6% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.22 45.1% 2.16 46.3%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6% 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.62 61.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Dafabet
draw_away 2.95 33.9% 3.04 32.9% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 2.90 34.5%
home_away 1.11 90.1% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.17 85.5% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0%
home_draw 1.10 90.9% 1.11 90.1% 1.10 90.9% 1.10 90.9% 1.12 89.3% 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Real Madrid
L W L W
16.04 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 1:2 ArsenalArsenal
22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 5:2 Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund
02.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 0:1 LilleLille
17.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 3:1 VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart
2 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
2.3 Scored
1.5 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyReal Madrid - Marseille

Real Madrid
0 matches total
Marseille
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history