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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Union St. Gilloise - Marseille

World Football
Union St. Gilloise
Union St. Gilloise
2 : 3
Finished
Marseille
Marseille

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Union St. Gilloise - Marseille December 9, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Marseille.

Line favourite market consensus: Marseille. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.01 / X 3.45 / 2 2.36
  • 1X2 market: Union St. Gilloise 31.8% / X 27.7% / Marseille 40.6%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 52.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.6%
1 31.8%
X 27.7%
2 40.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 3.9%
Over 2.5 52.6%
Under 2.5 47.4%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 09.12.2025 20:00 UTC
Market 1 31.8% @ 3.01 / X 27.7% @ 3.45 / 2 40.5% @ 2.36
Match center

Union St. Gilloise - Marseille

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.36 market consensus · line only
X 3.45 market consensus · line only
1 3.01 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.40 market consensus · line only
12 1.31 market consensus · line only
1X 1.61 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.40 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.14 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.31 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.60 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.83 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.23 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.62 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair
2.98 33.6% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3% 3.00 33.3%
X 3.40 29.4% 3.50 28.6% 3.54 28.3% 3.50 28.6% 3.45 29.0% 3.40 29.4%
2.32 43.1% 2.35 42.6% 2.44 41.0% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6% 2.38 42.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle Unibet
no 2.15 46.5% 2.24 44.6% 2.20 45.5% 2.20 45.5% 2.15 46.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.17 46.1% 2.30 43.5% 2.35 42.6%
yes 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.61 62.1% 1.62 61.7% 1.65 60.6% 1.60 62.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.67 59.9% 1.57 63.7%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Marathonbet Pinnacle
draw_away 1.38 72.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.36 73.5% 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4% 1.42 70.4%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.35 74.1% 1.28 78.1% 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2%
home_draw 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.57 63.7% 1.62 61.7% 1.63 61.4% 1.63 61.4%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 1.12 89.3%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 2.75 2.09 47.9%
Over 3.0 2.08 48.1%
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3%
Over 4.5 5.50 18.2%
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5%
Under 1.5 3.70 27.0%
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0%
Under 2.75 1.81 55.3%
Under 3.0 1.82 55.0%
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5%
Under 4.5 1.14 87.7%
Match center
Union St. Gilloise
W L L L W
25.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Union St. Gilloise 1:0 GalatasarayGalatasaray
04.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Union St. Gilloise 1:3 Atletiko MadridAtletiko Madrid
21.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Union St. Gilloise 0:4 InterInter
01.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Union St. Gilloise 0:4 NyukaslNyukasl
16.09 16:45 UTC UEFA Champions League
Union St. Gilloise 3:1 PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
2.4 Conceded
6 Points
Marseille
W L L W L
25.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Marseille 2:1 NyukaslNyukasl
05.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Marseille 0:1 AtalantaAtalanta
22.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Marseille 1:2 Sporting CPSporting CP
30.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Marseille 4:0 AjaxAjax
16.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Marseille 1:2 Real MadridReal Madrid
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
6 Points