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Start
20.01.2026 20:00 UTC
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20.01.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished
UEFA Champions League
Villarreal - Ajax
1
:
2
Finished
Math-model prediction
AI match prediction Villarreal - Ajax January 20, 2026
Football math modelBased on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Villarreal.
Line favourite market consensus: Villarreal. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
- 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.34 / X 5.58 / 2 7.97
- 1X2 market: Villarreal 70.9% / X 17.1% / Ajax 12.0%
- Total 2.5: over probability 70.8%
For reference
Fair probability (no margin)
Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome
bookmaker margin 5.1%
1
71.0%
X
17.1%
2
11.9%
Total 2.5
bookmaker margin 6.1%
Over 2.5
70.8%
Under 2.5
29.2%
Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
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Match center
Villarreal - Ajax
Form
5/5
recent games
H2H
0
head-to-head matches
Market
0
model / bookmakers
Football benchmark
What data is collected and where it is shown
yes
Match
Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat
shown: Overview
yes
Market / Glicko
model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal
shown: Overview
pending
Lineups and squad
Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt
shown: Lineups
yes
Form
Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore
shown: Form
pending
H2H
Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore
shown: H2H
pending
Tournament
Championat, Flashscore
shown: Tournament
pending
Player opinions
Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv
shown: Overview
pending
Live / postmatch
Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats
shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2
7.97
market consensus · line only
X
5.58
market consensus · line only
1
1.34
market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2
3.30
market consensus · line only
12
1.15
market consensus · line only
1X
1.09
market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5
3.10
market consensus · line only
2 -1
2.57
market consensus · line only
2 +0.5
6.62
market consensus · line only
1 -0.5
1.37
market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5
1.33
market consensus · line only
Under 2.5
3.23
market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No
2.34
market consensus · line only
Yes
1.57
market consensus · line only
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
Bookmaker line
Match markets
Match Winner
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.32 75.8% | 1.34 74.6% | 1.37 73.0% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.33 75.2% | 1.36 73.5% | |
| X | 5.70 17.5% | 5.70 17.5% | 5.89 17.0% | 5.00 20.0% | 5.50 18.2% | 5.90 17.0% |
| 8.00 12.5% | 8.20 12.2% | 8.50 11.8% | 7.50 13.3% | 8.00 12.5% | 8.25 12.1% |
Both teams to score
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Betfair | Marathonbet | Pinnacle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| no | 2.25 44.4% | 2.48 40.3% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.38 42.0% | 2.25 44.4% | 2.35 42.6% | 2.30 43.5% | 2.27 44.1% | 2.42 41.3% |
| yes | 1.60 62.5% | 1.54 64.9% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.53 65.4% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.55 64.5% | 1.57 63.7% | 1.56 64.1% | 1.61 62.1% |
Double chance
| Outcome | 10Bet | 1xBet | 888Sport | Bet365 | Betano | Marathonbet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| draw_away | 3.30 30.3% | 3.36 29.8% | 3.20 31.3% | 3.25 30.8% | 3.30 30.3% | 3.45 29.0% |
| home_away | 1.10 90.9% | 1.17 85.5% | 1.15 87.0% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.14 87.7% | 1.16 86.2% |
| home_draw | 1.06 94.3% | 1.10 90.9% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.08 92.6% | 1.11 90.1% | 1.10 90.9% |
Goals Over/Under
| Outcome | 10Bet | 188Bet | 1xBet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| Over 1.0 | — | — | 1.02 98.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 1.11 90.1% | — | 1.05 95.2% |
| Over 1.75 | — | — | 1.06 94.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.36 73.5% | — | — |
| Over 3.25 | — | 1.96 51.0% | — |
| Over 3.5 | 1.85 54.1% | 1.90 52.6% | — |
| Over 4.5 | 3.00 33.3% | — | — |
| Over 5.5 | 5.25 19.1% | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 6.25 16.0% | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 3.10 32.3% | — | — |
| Under 3.25 | — | 1.86 53.8% | — |
| Under 3.5 | 1.90 52.6% | 2.00 50.0% | — |
| Under 4.5 | 1.38 72.5% | — | — |
| Under 5.5 | 1.15 87.0% | — | — |
Match center
Villarreal
L
L
L
L
D
Villarreal
2:3
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FC Copenhagen
Villarreal
0:4
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Villarreal
0:1
Pafos
Pafos
Villarreal
0:2
Manchester City
Manchester City
Villarreal
2:2
Juventus
Juventus
0
Wins
1
Draws
4
Losses
0.8
Scored
2.4
Conceded
1
Points
Ajax
W
L
L
L
L
Ajax
4:2
Qarabag
Qarabag
Ajax
0:2
Benfica
Benfica
Ajax
0:3
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
Ajax
1:5
Chelsea
Chelsea
Ajax
0:4
Marseille
Marseille
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
1.0
Scored
3.2
Conceded
3
Points
Match center
Full head-to-head historyVillarreal - Ajax
Villarreal
0
matches total
Biggest win
—
largest score margin
Highest-scoring match
—
most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw
—
draw with the most goals
Match history
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