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UEFA Champions League
UEFA Champions League World
21.10.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Champions League

Villarreal - Manchester City

World Football
Villarreal
Villarreal
0 : 2
Finished
Manchester City
Manchester City

Villarreal face Manchester City on October 21, 2025 in the UEFA Champions League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Villarreal 0-1-1, Manchester City 3-2-0. Sportsbooks lean towards Manchester City, an implied 55% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Villarreal - Manchester City October 21, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Manchester City.

Line favourite market consensus: Manchester City. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 4.57 / X 3.98 / 2 1.73
  • 1X2 market: Villarreal 20.9% / X 24.0% / Manchester City 55.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 58.9%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 4.8%
1 20.9%
X 24.0%
2 55.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 58.9%
Under 2.5 41.1%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 21.10.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 20.9% @ 4.57 / X 24.0% @ 3.98 / 2 55.2% @ 1.73
Match center

Villarreal - Manchester City

Form 2/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.73 market consensus · line only
X 3.98 market consensus · line only
1 4.57 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.20 market consensus · line only
12 1.25 market consensus · line only
1X 2.13 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.21 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.02 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.72 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.24 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.62 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.32 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.28 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.59 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
4.60 21.7% 4.45 22.5% 4.69 21.3% 4.40 22.7% 4.50 22.2% 4.75 21.1%
X 4.00 25.0% 4.05 24.7% 4.18 23.9% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.10 24.4%
1.69 59.2% 1.72 58.1% 1.78 56.2% 1.70 58.8% 1.73 57.8% 1.75 57.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.30 43.5% 2.32 43.1% 2.24 44.6% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.25 44.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.21 45.3% 2.34 42.7%
yes 1.55 64.5% 1.61 62.1% 1.59 62.9% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.57 63.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.65 60.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.18 84.8% 1.23 81.3% 1.20 83.3% 1.18 84.8% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.27 78.7% 1.25 80.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.27 78.7%
home_draw 2.10 47.6% 2.16 46.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 2.15 46.5% 2.17 46.1%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.25 1.08 92.6%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% 1.15 87.0%
Over 2.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 3.0 2.09 47.9%
Over 3.5 2.40 41.7%
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8%
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0%
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1%
Under 2.5 2.35 42.6%
Under 3.0 1.83 54.6%
Under 3.5 1.55 64.5%
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0%
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6%
Match center
Villarreal
D L
01.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Villarreal 2:2 JuventusJuventus
16.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Villarreal 0:1 TottenkhemTottenkhem
0 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.5 Conceded
1 Points
Manchester City
D W W W D
01.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Manchester City 2:2 MonacoMonaco
18.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Manchester City 2:0 NapoliNapoli
23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Manchester City 5:0 Sparta PragaSparta Praga
01.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Manchester City 4:0 Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava
18.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Champions League
Manchester City 0:0 InterInter
3 Wins
2 Draws
0 Losses
2.6 Scored
0.4 Conceded
11 Points