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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
14.08.2025 18:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Celje - FC Lugano

World Football
Celje
Celje
2 : 4
Finished
FC Lugano
FC Lugano

Celje meet FC Lugano on August 14, 2025 in the UEFA Europa Conference League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Celje 2-1-1, FC Lugano 2-0-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Celje, an implied 38% to win. Scroll down for team stats, head-to-head record, odds and the PrognozAI AI pick.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Celje - FC Lugano August 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Celje.

Line favourite market consensus: Celje. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.44 / X 3.51 / 2 2.54
  • 1X2 market: Celje 37.6% / X 26.2% / FC Lugano 36.2%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 59.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.9% 14 books · best price +4.0%
1 37.0%
X 26.5%
2 36.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 7.0%
Over 2.5 59.2%
Under 2.5 40.8%

Odds source: consensus of 14 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.08.2025 18:00 UTC
Market 1 37.7% @ 2.44 / X 26.2% @ 3.51 / 2 36.2% @ 2.54
Match center

Celje - FC Lugano

Form 4/3 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.54 market consensus · line only
X 3.51 market consensus · line only
1 2.44 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.49 market consensus · line only
12 1.27 market consensus · line only
1X 1.48 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.59 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.29 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 2.47 market consensus · line only
2 +1 3.90 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.58 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.29 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.46 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.49 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.45 40.8% 2.13 47.0% 2.59 38.6% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.55 39.2%
X 3.45 29.0% 3.65 27.4% 3.64 27.5% 3.40 29.4% 3.40 29.4% 3.45 29.0%
2.55 39.2% 2.65 37.7% 2.63 38.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.52 39.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Pinnacle Superbet
no 2.45 40.8% 2.47 40.5% 2.50 40.0% 2.45 40.8% 2.38 42.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.40 41.7% 2.48 40.3% 2.45 40.8%
yes 1.45 69.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.49 67.1%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Pinnacle
draw_away 1.50 66.7% 1.51 66.2% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.51 66.2%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.29 77.5% 1.29 77.5% 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1% 1.28 78.1%
home_draw 1.48 67.6% 1.50 66.7% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.52 65.8% 1.50 66.7%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8% 1.13 88.5%
Over 1.75 1.17 85.5%
Over 2.0 1.21 82.6%
Over 2.25 1.37 73.0%
Over 2.5 1.57 63.7%
Over 3.0 1.95 51.3%
Over 3.5 2.40 41.7%
Over 4.5 3.95 25.3%
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5%
Under 1.5 4.50 22.2%
Under 2.5 2.30 43.5%
Under 3.0 1.87 53.5%
Under 3.5 1.53 65.4%
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0%
Match center
Celje
W D W L
07.08 18:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 5:0 FC LuganoFC Lugano
17.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 2:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
24.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 5:1 BaşakşehirBaşakşehir
02.10 14:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 1:3 Guimaraes
2 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
3.3 Scored
1.5 Conceded
7 Points
FC Lugano
L W W
07.08 18:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano 0:5 TseleTsele
24.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano 1:0 Mlada Boleslav
03.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano 3:0 HJK helsinkiHJK helsinki
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCelje - FC Lugano

Celje
1 matches total
FC Lugano
Celje: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
FC Lugano: 1 (100%)
Biggest win Tsele 5:0 (07.08 18:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (5:0, 07.08 18:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

0 Goals scored 0
0 Goals conceded 0

Match history

07.08 18:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Tsele
5:0
FC Lugano