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UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
07.08.2025 18:30 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

FC Lugano - Celje

World Football
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
0 : 5
Finished
Celje
Celje

FC Lugano face Celje on August 7, 2025 in the UEFA Europa Conference League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): FC Lugano 2-0-0, Celje 1-1-1. The bookmaker line makes FC Lugano the favourite at about 58%. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction FC Lugano - Celje August 7, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FC Lugano.

Line favourite Fonbet: FC Lugano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.67 / X 4.00 / 2 5.40
  • 1X2 market: FC Lugano 57.9% / X 24.2% / Celje 17.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.3%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.7% 17 books · best price +4.4%
1 57.6%
X 24.1%
2 18.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.3%
Over 2.5 46.8%
Under 2.5 53.2%

Odds source: consensus of 17 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 07.08.2025 18:30 UTC
Market 1 57.9% @ 1.67 / X 24.2% @ 4.00 / 2 17.9% @ 5.40
Match center

FC Lugano - Celje

Form 2/3 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.40 Fonbet · line only
X 4.00 Fonbet · line only
1 1.67 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 2.20 Fonbet · line only
12 1.25 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.15 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.26 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.67 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 5.25 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.05 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.80 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.00 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.60 62.5% 1.52 65.8% 1.65 60.6% 1.57 63.7% 1.60 62.5% 1.65 60.6%
X 3.75 26.7% 4.00 25.0% 3.92 25.5% 4.00 25.0% 3.70 27.0% 3.85 26.0%
5.00 20.0% 4.75 21.1% 5.57 18.0% 5.00 20.0% 5.25 19.1% 4.90 20.4%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 1.73 57.8% 2.15 46.5% 1.75 57.1% 2.25 44.4% 1.73 57.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8%
yes 1.93 51.8% 1.66 60.2% 1.98 50.5% 1.62 61.7% 2.00 50.0% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.00 50.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 2.20 45.5% 2.28 43.9% 2.30 43.5% 2.25 44.4% 2.27 44.1% 2.30 43.5%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.28 78.1% 1.24 80.7% 1.25 80.0%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.15 87.0% 1.17 85.5% 1.14 87.7% 1.20 83.3% 1.15 87.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.02 98.0%
Over 0.75 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.0 1.02 98.0%
Over 1.25 1.15 87.0%
Over 1.5 1.30 76.9% 1.28 78.1%
Over 1.75 1.36 73.5%
Over 2.0 1.48 67.6%
Over 2.25 1.74 57.5%
Over 2.5 1.95 51.3% 2.05 48.8%
Over 2.75 2.27 44.1%
Over 3.0 1.99 50.3%
Over 3.5 3.50 28.6%
Under 1.5 3.30 30.3%
Under 2.5 1.80 55.6%
Under 3.0 1.79 55.9%
Under 3.5 1.28 78.1%
Match center
FC Lugano
W W
24.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano 1:0 Mlada Boleslav
03.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
FC Lugano 3:0 HJK helsinkiHJK helsinki
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
2.0 Scored
0.0 Conceded
6 Points
Celje
D W L
17.04 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 2:2 FiorentinaFiorentina
24.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 5:1 BaşakşehirBaşakşehir
02.10 14:30 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Celje 1:3 Guimaraes
1 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.7 Scored
2.0 Conceded
4 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyFC Lugano - Celje

FC Lugano
0 matches total
Celje
Biggest win largest score margin
Highest-scoring match most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Match history