Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
UEFA Europa Conference League
UEFA Europa Conference League World
06.11.2025 20:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa Conference League

Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznan

World Football
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2
Finished
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan

Rayo Vallecano take on Lech Poznan on November 6, 2025 in the UEFA Europa Conference League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Rayo Vallecano 2-1-0, Lech Poznan 1-0-1. Sportsbooks lean towards Rayo Vallecano, an implied 60% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznan November 6, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Rayo Vallecano.

Line favourite market consensus: Rayo Vallecano. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.57 / X 4.05 / 2 5.58
  • 1X2 market: Rayo Vallecano 59.8% / X 23.3% / Lech Poznan 16.9%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.4%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 6.3%
1 59.9%
X 23.2%
2 16.9%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.2%
Over 2.5 53.4%
Under 2.5 46.6%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 06.11.2025 20:00 UTC
Market 1 59.9% @ 1.57 / X 23.2% @ 4.05 / 2 16.9% @ 5.58
Match center

Rayo Vallecano - Lech Poznan

Form 3/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.58 market consensus · line only
X 4.05 market consensus · line only
1 1.57 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 2.35 market consensus · line only
12 1.23 market consensus · line only
1X 1.14 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.43 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.81 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 5.48 market consensus · line only
1 -0.5 1.56 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.78 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.04 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.93 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.80 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.57 63.7% 1.46 68.5% 1.63 61.4% 1.60 62.5% 1.60 62.5% 1.62 61.7%
X 4.10 24.4% 4.40 22.7% 4.16 24.0% 3.90 25.6% 3.90 25.6% 4.15 24.1%
5.60 17.9% 5.90 17.0% 5.61 17.8% 5.00 20.0% 5.50 18.2% 5.90 17.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 1.90 52.6% 1.98 50.5% 1.90 52.6% 1.95 51.3% 1.91 52.4% 1.93 51.8% 1.95 51.3% 1.88 53.2% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6% 1.80 55.6%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 2.38 42.0% 2.36 42.4% 2.30 43.5% 2.30 43.5% 2.37 42.2% 2.31 43.3%
home_away 1.20 83.3% 1.26 79.4% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0% 1.24 80.7% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.15 87.0% 1.14 87.7% 1.17 85.5% 1.13 88.5%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.05 95.2% 1.01 99.0%
Over 0.75 1.00 100.0%
Over 1.0 1.01 99.0%
Over 1.25 1.11 90.1%
Over 1.5 1.25 80.0%
Over 2.5 1.80 55.6%
Over 2.75 1.89 52.9%
Over 3.0 1.97 50.8%
Over 3.5 3.00 33.3%
Over 4.5 6.50 15.4%
Under 0.5 9.50 10.5%
Under 1.5 3.75 26.7%
Under 2.5 2.00 50.0%
Under 2.75 1.93 51.8%
Under 3.0 1.85 54.1%
Under 3.5 1.38 72.5%
Under 4.5 1.10 90.9%
Match center
Rayo Vallecano
D W W
23.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 2:2 BK HackenBK Hacken
02.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 2:0 ShkendijaShkendija
28.08 18:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Rayo Vallecano 4:0 NemanNeman
2 Wins
1 Draws
0 Losses
2.7 Scored
0.7 Conceded
7 Points
Lech Poznan
L W
23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Lech Poznan 1:2 Lincoln Red Imps FCLincoln Red Imps FC
02.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa Conference League
Lech Poznan 4:1 Rapid Vienna
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.5 Scored
1.5 Conceded
3 Points