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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
07.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

AEK Larnaca - Legia Warszawa

World Football
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca
4 : 1
Finished
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa

AEK Larnaca take on Legia Warszawa on August 7, 2025 in the UEFA Europa League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): AEK Larnaca 1-0-1, Legia Warszawa 2-0-0. The bookmaker line makes AEK Larnaca the favourite at about 36%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction AEK Larnaca - Legia Warszawa August 7, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like AEK Larnaca.

Line favourite Fonbet: AEK Larnaca. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.65 / X 3.40 / 2 2.75
  • 1X2 market: AEK Larnaca 36.5% / X 28.4% / Legia Warszawa 35.1%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 53.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.8% 17 books · best price +9.5%
1 38.3%
X 28.3%
2 33.4%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.5%
Over 2.5 46.2%
Under 2.5 53.8%

Odds source: consensus of 17 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 07.08.2025 16:30 UTC
Market 1 36.5% @ 2.65 / X 28.4% @ 3.40 / 2 35.1% @ 2.75
Match center

AEK Larnaca - Legia Warszawa

Form 2/2 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.75 Fonbet · line only
X 3.40 Fonbet · line only
1 2.65 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 1.48 Fonbet · line only
12 1.32 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.45 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.54 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.20 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 2.75 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 2.07 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.78 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.00 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.80 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
2.50 40.0%
X 3.38 29.6%
2.83 35.3%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
2.38 42.0% 2.29 43.7% 2.62 38.2% 2.25 44.4% 2.45 40.8% 2.42 41.3%
X 3.20 31.3% 3.30 30.3% 3.41 29.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8%
2.80 35.7% 2.76 36.2% 2.77 36.1% 2.90 34.5% 2.62 38.2% 2.85 35.1%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 1.93 51.8% 1.92 52.1% 1.95 51.3% 1.95 51.3% 1.83 54.6% 1.93 51.8% 2.00 50.0% 1.91 52.4% 1.87 53.5%
yes 1.73 57.8% 1.86 53.8% 1.78 56.2% 1.80 55.6% 1.83 54.6% 1.78 56.2% 1.73 57.8% 1.80 55.6% 1.82 55.0%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 1.53 65.4% 1.52 65.8% 1.57 63.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.57 63.7% 1.50 66.7%
home_away 1.25 80.0% 1.34 74.6% 1.33 75.2% 1.25 80.0% 1.32 75.8% 1.30 76.9%
home_draw 1.40 71.4% 1.47 68.0% 1.36 73.5% 1.40 71.4% 1.44 69.4% 1.50 66.7%
Match center
AEK Larnaca
W L
31.07 16:30 UTC UEFA Europa League
AEK Larnaca 2:1 TseleTsele
17.07 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
AEK Larnaca 0:1 FK PartizanFK Partizan
1 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
3 Points
Legia Warszawa
W W
31.07 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa 2:1 Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava
17.07 16:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa 1:0 AktobeAktobe
2 Wins
0 Draws
0 Losses
1.5 Scored
0.5 Conceded
6 Points