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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data Line Form H2H Prediction
14.08.2025 19:00 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Legia Warszawa - AEK Larnaca

World Football
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
2 : 1
Finished
AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca

Legia Warszawa face AEK Larnaca on August 14, 2025 in the UEFA Europa League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Legia Warszawa 2-0-1, AEK Larnaca 2-0-1. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. The bookmaker line makes Legia Warszawa the favourite at about 60%. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Legia Warszawa - AEK Larnaca August 14, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Legia Warszawa.

Line favourite Fonbet: Legia Warszawa. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.60 / X 4.20 / 2 5.80
  • 1X2 market: Legia Warszawa 60.4% / X 23.0% / AEK Larnaca 16.7%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 57.7%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.5% 18 books · best price +3.5%
1 59.3%
X 22.5%
2 18.2%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 5.1%
Over 2.5 57.7%
Under 2.5 42.3%

Odds source: consensus of 18 books (10Bet, 188Bet, 1xBet, 888Sport, Bet365, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 14.08.2025 19:00 UTC
Market 1 60.4% @ 1.60 / X 23.0% @ 4.20 / 2 16.7% @ 5.80
Match center

Legia Warszawa - AEK Larnaca

Form 3/3 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

4/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.80 Fonbet · line only
X 4.20 Fonbet · line only
1 1.60 Fonbet · line only
Double chance
X2 2.35 Fonbet · line only
12 1.23 Fonbet · line only
1X 1.14 Fonbet · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 2.33 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.88 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 4.70 market consensus · line only
2 +1 8.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.65 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 2.25 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.15 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.70 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Market 1

Outcome SStats Consensus
1.63 61.4%
X 3.99 25.1%
5.24 19.1%

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
1.55 64.5% 1.62 61.7% 1.59 62.9% 1.62 61.7% 1.55 64.5% 1.57 63.7%
X 4.20 23.8% 3.85 26.0% 4.31 23.2% 4.00 25.0% 4.20 23.8% 4.20 23.8%
5.00 20.0% 4.15 24.1% 5.38 18.6% 4.40 22.7% 5.25 19.1% 5.10 19.6%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Betway Bwin
no 2.05 48.8% 2.17 46.1% 2.14 46.7% 2.20 45.5% 2.00 50.0% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8% 2.05 48.8%
yes 1.65 60.6% 1.67 59.9% 1.72 58.1% 1.65 60.6% 1.73 57.8% 1.70 58.8% 1.67 59.9% 1.70 58.8% 1.68 59.5%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betway
draw_away 2.35 42.6% 2.36 42.4% 2.20 45.5% 2.38 42.0% 2.42 41.3% 2.40 41.7%
home_away 1.17 85.5% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
home_draw 1.12 89.3% 1.16 86.2% 1.20 83.3% 1.14 87.7% 1.19 84.0% 1.17 85.5%
Match center
Legia Warszawa
L W W
07.08 16:30 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa 1:4 AEK LarnakaAEK Larnaka
31.07 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa 2:1 Baník OstravaBaník Ostrava
17.07 16:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa 1:0 AktobeAktobe
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.3 Scored
1.7 Conceded
6 Points
AEK Larnaca
W W L
07.08 16:30 UTC UEFA Europa League
AEK Larnaca 4:1 Legia Warszawa
31.07 16:30 UTC UEFA Europa League
AEK Larnaca 2:1 TseleTsele
17.07 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
AEK Larnaca 0:1 FK PartizanFK Partizan
2 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
2.0 Scored
1.0 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyLegia Warszawa - AEK Larnaca

Legia Warszawa
1 matches total
AEK Larnaca
Legia Warszawa: 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
AEK Larnaca: 1 (100%)
Biggest win AEK Larnaka 1:4 (07.08 16:30 UTC) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 5 goals (1:4, 07.08 16:30 UTC) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 4
4 Goals conceded 1

Match history

07.08 16:30 UTC UEFA Europa League
Legia Warszawa
1:4
AEK Larnaka