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UEFA Europa League
UEFA Europa League World
11.12.2025 17:45 UTC
Finished

UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz - FK Crvena Zvezda

World Football
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
0 : 1
Finished
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda

Sturm Graz take on FK Crvena Zvezda on December 11, 2025 in the UEFA Europa League, World.

Recent form (W-D-L): Sturm Graz 1-1-3, FK Crvena Zvezda 2-1-2. Sportsbooks lean towards FK Crvena Zvezda, an implied 46% to win. Below: team form, head-to-head history, bookmaker odds and the full PrognozAI AI breakdown.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Sturm Graz - FK Crvena Zvezda December 11, 2025

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like FK Crvena Zvezda.

Line favourite market consensus: FK Crvena Zvezda. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 3.36 / X 3.72 / 2 2.03
  • 1X2 market: Sturm Graz 28.2% / X 25.4% / FK Crvena Zvezda 46.4%
  • Total 2.5: over probability 60.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 5.9%
1 28.1%
X 25.4%
2 46.5%
Total 2.5 bookmaker margin 4.8%
Over 2.5 60.8%
Under 2.5 39.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

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Match center
Start 11.12.2025 17:45 UTC
Market 1 28.1% @ 3.36 / X 25.4% @ 3.72 / 2 46.5% @ 2.03
Match center

Sturm Graz - FK Crvena Zvezda

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 0 model / bookmakers
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

3/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
pending Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Betting snapshot
1X2
2 2.03 market consensus · line only
X 3.72 market consensus · line only
1 3.36 market consensus · line only
Double chance
X2 1.32 market consensus · line only
12 1.26 market consensus · line only
1X 1.80 market consensus · line only
Handicap
2 -0.5 1.37 market consensus · line only
2 -1 1.13 market consensus · line only
2 +0.5 1.99 market consensus · line only
2 +1 2.77 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.57 market consensus · line only
Under 2.5 2.43 market consensus · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.50 market consensus · line only
Yes 1.50 market consensus · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano
3.50 28.6% 2.65 37.7% 3.54 28.3% 3.25 30.8% 3.50 28.6% 3.50 28.6%
X 3.65 27.4% 3.60 27.8% 3.90 25.6% 3.50 28.6% 3.90 25.6% 3.75 26.7%
1.99 50.3% 2.16 46.3% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 1.95 51.3% 2.00 50.0%

Both teams to score

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Betfair Marathonbet Pinnacle
no 2.50 40.0% 2.47 40.5% 2.48 40.3% 2.40 41.7% 2.50 40.0% 2.50 40.0% 2.63 38.0% 2.44 41.0% 2.63 38.0%
yes 1.48 67.6% 1.53 65.4% 1.49 67.1% 1.53 65.4% 1.50 66.7% 1.50 66.7% 1.44 69.4% 1.49 67.1% 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet 888Sport Bet365 Betano Marathonbet
draw_away 1.30 76.9% 1.35 74.1% 1.33 75.2% 1.28 78.1% 1.32 75.8% 1.34 74.6%
home_away 1.22 82.0% 1.30 76.9% 1.29 77.5% 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 1.29 77.5%
home_draw 1.77 56.5% 1.82 55.0% 1.75 57.1% 1.80 55.6% 1.85 54.1% 1.82 55.0%

Goals Over/Under

Outcome 10Bet 188Bet 1xBet
Over 0.5 1.04 96.2% 1.03 97.1%
Over 1.0 1.04 96.2%
Over 1.5 1.18 84.8%
Over 2.5 1.55 64.5%
Over 2.75 1.80 55.6%
Over 3.0 2.00 50.0%
Over 3.5 2.35 42.6%
Over 4.5 4.20 23.8%
Over 5.5 7.50 13.3%
Under 0.5 10.00 10.0%
Under 1.5 4.75 21.1%
Under 2.5 2.40 41.7%
Under 2.75 2.02 49.5%
Under 3.0 1.89 52.9%
Under 3.5 1.57 63.7%
Under 4.5 1.22 82.0%
Under 5.5 1.08 92.6%
Match center
Sturm Graz
L D L W L
27.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz 1:2 PanathinaikosPanathinaikos
06.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz 0:0 Nottingem ForestNottingem Forest
23.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz 1:2 CelticCeltic
02.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz 2:1 RangersRangers
24.09 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
Sturm Graz 0:2 MidtyullannMidtyullann
1 Wins
1 Draws
3 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.4 Conceded
4 Points
FK Crvena Zvezda
W W L L D
27.11 20:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FK Crvena Zvezda 1:0 FCSBFCSB
06.11 17:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FK Crvena Zvezda 1:0 LilleLille
23.10 16:45 UTC UEFA Europa League
FK Crvena Zvezda 0:2 BragaBraga
02.10 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FK Crvena Zvezda 1:2 FC PortoFC Porto
24.09 19:00 UTC UEFA Europa League
FK Crvena Zvezda 1:1 CelticCeltic
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
1.0 Conceded
7 Points