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Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings
Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings
Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form ✓H2H ✓Prediction
03.08.2026 22:00 UTC Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round
Finished

Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings

Defensor Sporting - Cerro Montevideo

Football
Stadium Estadio Luis Franzini
Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting
2 : 1
Finished
Cerro Montevideo
Cerro Montevideo

Defensor Sporting go head-to-head with Cerro Montevideo on August 3, 2026 in the Uruguay: Liga AUF Uruguaya - Torneo Intermedio Standings.

Recent form (W-D-L): Defensor Sporting 0-3-2, Cerro Montevideo 3-0-2. The market favourite is Defensor Sporting at roughly 55%. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 53% to win — broadly in line with the market. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Defensor Sporting — 53%

Pure model vs market (1 · Defensor Sporting): model 29% · market 55% Δ −26 pp model estimates below the market

1 · Defensor Sporting53.5%
X · draw26.8%
2 · Cerro Montevideo19.8%

Model estimate: win Defensor Sporting 53.5%, draw 26.8%, win Cerro Montevideo 19.8%. Model favourite — Defensor Sporting.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Defensor Sporting (odds1.66) Score 1:0 confidence 50% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Defensor Sporting: probability 50% vs 60% on the line (odds 1.66)
  • • no edge over the line (-10 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 1:0.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Defensor Sporting - Cerro Montevideo August 3, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Defensor Sporting.

Strongest: Defensor Sporting - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 1.67 / X 3.34 / 2 5.09
  • 1X2 market: Defensor Sporting 54.7% / X 27.3% / Cerro Montevideo 18.0%
  • Glicko: Defensor Sporting 53.5% / X 26.8% / Cerro Montevideo 19.8%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 9.3% 17 books · best price +3.0%
1 55.1%
X 27.1%
2 17.8%

Odds source: consensus of 17 books (10Bet, 1xBet, Baltbet, Bet365, BetVictor, Betano). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.77 ↓ 1.01
1X2 X 3.25 ↓ 1.18
1X2 2 5.10 ↑ 13.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Primera División - Apertura
League table
Defensor Sporting
#1124 ptsGP 215-9-717:19
Cerro Montevideo
#1519 ptsGP 215-4-1213:32
Best price across 14 books
1 1.72 Dafabet
X 3.62 Pinnacle
2 5.50 BetVictor

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Defensor Sporting
W-D-L 1-5-4 Scored 0.80 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.13 xGA 1.14
Cerro Montevideo
W-D-L 3-1-6 Scored 0.70 Conceded 1.69 xG 0.84 xGA 1.42

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Defensor Sporting
Rating 1514 xG 1.52 Win 53%
Cerro Montevideo
Rating 1426 xG 0.85 Win 21%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Defensor Sporting 1 : 1 Cerro Montevideo
11.65
X3.38
25.08

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated03.08.2026 22:34 UTC
1 46% ✓ favourite
X 31%
2 23%
Score1:1 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:X2
Per AI data H2H: 0-1
Claude updated03.08.2026 22:39 UTC
1 47% ✓ favourite
X 30%
2 23%
Score1:0 Total goals: Under 2.5 BTTS:No Bet:Under 2.5

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 46% 31% 23% 1:1 Under 2.5 No X2
Claude 47% 30% 23% 1:0 Under 2.5 No Under 2.5

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

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Match center
Stadium Estadio Luis Franzini
Start 03.08.2026 22:00 UTC
Market 1 54.7% @ 1.67 / X 27.4% @ 3.34 / 2 17.9% @ 5.09
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Defensor Sporting 47%
📐 Math model Defensor Sporting 53%
💹 Market Defensor Sporting 5467%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Defensor Sporting - Cerro Montevideo

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Defensor Sporting - Serro, 4 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Uruguay — Primera 2026, Promezhutochnyy Tournament. Group A. 7-y Round. Defensor Sporting - Serro, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants H2H Tournament Line Movement
More needed
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.5% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.326 / LogLoss 0.625
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 53.5% fact: home hit / ROI 72.0% / Brier 0.326 / LogLoss 0.625
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Defensor Sporting 55.0% 53.5% market and model agree
Draw 27.1% 26.8% draw risk
Cerro Montevideo 17.9% 19.8%
xG - 1.52 : 0.85
1X2: 17 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 53.5% / 26.8% / 19.8% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,274 / 1,590 Defensor Sporting / Cerro Montevideo
RD 267 / 226 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 741-1,807 / 1,139-2,041 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 5.09 market consensus · no value · model 19.8%
X 1.18 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 53.5%
Double chance
12 4.30 Fonbet · weak value +215.0% · model 73.2%
1X 1.03 Fonbet · no value · model 80.2%
X2 2.06 market consensus · no value · model 46.5%
Handicap
2 -1 2.55 Fonbet · line only
2 +1 1.55 market consensus · line only
2 0 2.65 Fonbet · line only
1 -1 1.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 4.20 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.19 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 2.50 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.50 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
1.71 58.5% 1.65 60.6% 1.62 61.7% 1.67 59.9% 1.67 59.9% 1.65 60.6%
X 3.30 30.3% 3.35 29.9% 3.25 30.8% 3.25 30.8% 3.30 30.3% 3.30 30.3%
4.90 20.4% 5.14 19.5% 5.25 19.1% 5.20 19.2% 4.75 21.1% 5.50 18.2%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 2.50 40.0% 1.58 63.3%
yes 1.50 66.7% 2.25 44.4%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.25 80.0% 1.26 79.4% 4.30 23.3%
1x 1.12 89.3% 1.13 88.5% 1.03 97.1%
x2 2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 11.50 8.7%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 7.00 14.3%
0_1 8.50 11.8%
0_2 21.00 4.8%
0_3 61.00 1.6%
1_0 4.50 22.2%
1_1 5.75 17.4%
1_2 13.00 7.7%
1_3 46.00 2.2%
2_0 6.00 16.7%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 17.00 5.9%
2_3 51.00 2.0%
3_0 11.00 9.1%
3_1 13.00 7.7%
3_2 29.00 3.5%
3_3 76.00 1.3%
4_0 26.00 3.9%
4_1 31.00 3.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 3-3-2, avg 2.62 gls
2026-04-05 · Defensor Sporting 0:1 Serro
2025-10-11 · Defensor Sporting 0:1 Serro
2025-06-22 · Defensor Sporting 2:1 Serro
2025-04-14 · Defensor Sporting 3:2 Serro
2024-09-07 · Defensor Sporting 1:1 Serro
Source: ruscore
Defensor Sporting
L D L D D
2026-07-25 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1:2 Liverpool Montevideo
2026-07-13 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Defensor Sporting Cerro Largo 1:1 Defensor Sporting
2026-07-04 Club Friendly Games 2026
Defensor Sporting Cruzeiro 2:0 Defensor Sporting
2026-06-07 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Defensor Sporting Defensor Sporting 1:1 Boston River
2026-05-30 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Defensor Sporting Racing Montevideo 0:0 Defensor Sporting
0 Wins
3 Draws
2 Losses
0.6 Scored
1.2 Conceded
3 Points
Cerro Montevideo
W W L L W
2026-07-26 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Cerro Montevideo 1:0 Racing Montevideo Cerro Montevideo
2026-07-12 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Liverpool Montevideo 1:2 Cerro Montevideo Cerro Montevideo
2026-06-07 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Cerro Montevideo 0:1 Penarol Montevideo Cerro Montevideo
2026-05-29 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Cerro Largo 2:0 Cerro Montevideo Cerro Montevideo
2026-05-24 Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
Cerro Montevideo 1:0 Central Espanol Cerro Montevideo
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
0.8 Scored
0.8 Conceded
9 Points
Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Defensor Sporting
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Cerro Montevideo
Defensor Sporting Team comparison Cerro Montevideo
21 Games 21
5 Wins 5
9 Draws 4
7 Losses 12
17 Scored 13
19 Conceded 32
24 Points 19
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
21 Games 21
5 Wins 5
9 Draws 4
7 Losses 12
17 Scored 13
19 Conceded 32

Defensor Sporting Serro 21 Games 21 5 Wins 5 9 Draws 4 7 Losses 12 17 Scored 13 19 Conceded 32 24 Points 19 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 2.48 Warnings 3.76 0.14 Sendoffs 0.29 Goly Jairo Amaro 0:1 30' Martin Rabunyal 1 33' Lautaro Navarro 2:1 85' Nakazaniya Damian Suares 18' Nicolas Medina 37' Nicolas Wunsch 52' Francisco Bregante 65' Khuan Guasone 73' Tomas Posso 74' Statistika Defensor Sporting Serro 3 Warnings 3 0 Sendoffs 0 Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 25% 12% 63% Double chance 19% 43% 38% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1320886' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Uruguay — Primera Turnirnaya Standings