PropickAI PropickAI
Sign in Sign up
Free access Sign in to unlock the full prediction Create a free account to see the full AI breakdown, probabilities, risks and history.
USA. MLS. Outrights
USA. MLS. Outrights
Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round 04.08.2026 23:45 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
04.08.2026 23:45 UTC Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round
Finished

USA. MLS. Outrights

Cincinnati - Pachuca

Football
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
3 : 1
Finished
Pachuca
Pachuca

Cincinnati face Pachuca on August 4, 2026 in the USA. MLS. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Cincinnati 4-0-1, Pachuca 2-0-3. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 47% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Cincinnati — 47%

Pure model vs market (1 · Cincinnati): model 52% · market 47% Δ +5 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Cincinnati47.3%
X · draw23.5%
2 · Pachuca29.2%

Model estimate: win Cincinnati 47.3%, draw 23.5%, win Pachuca 29.2%. Model favourite — Cincinnati.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Cincinnati (odds1.92) Score 2:1 confidence 52% ✓ outcome correct
  • • Model backs Tsintsinnati: probability 52% vs 52% on the line (odds 1.92)
  • • legkiy pereves +0 pp nad liniey
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Cincinnati - Pachuca August 4, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Cincinnati.

Line favourite Fonbet: Cincinnati. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 1.01 / X 3.75 / 2 14.00
  • Glicko: Cincinnati 47.3% / X 23.5% / Pachuca 29.2%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 8.4% 3 books · best price +2.0%
1 47.1%
X 23.6%
2 29.3%

Odds source: consensus of 3 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 2.02 ↓ 1.01
1X2 X 3.85 ↓ 3.75
1X2 2 3.20 ↑ 14.00

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Leagues Cup
League table
Cincinnati
#33 ptsGP 11-0-03:1
Pachuca
#110 ptsGP 10-0-11:3
Best price across 14 books
1 2.15 Betano
X 4.00 Betfair
2 3.29 Pinnacle

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Cincinnati
W-D-L 4-4-2 Scored 2.07 Conceded 1.79 xG 1.59 xGA 1.31 Corners 5.5
Pachuca
W-D-L 2-3-3 Scored 1.29 Conceded 1.31 xG 1.36 xGA 1.50 Corners 3.8

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

AI

Model consensus

AI outcome leader: 1

Main outcome
Agreement 1/1
Confidence 62.0%

Modeli dayut edinyy signal. Takie matchi my pomechaem kak bolee silnye.

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Cincinnati
47%
2.00
Draw
24%
4.00
Pachuca
29%
14.00
Handicap
Cincinnati (0)
61%
1.54
Pachuca (0)
39%
7.60
Total
Over 3.5
45%
2.10
Under 3.5
55%
2.50
Both teams to score
Yes
66%
1.41
No
34%
4.30

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Cincinnati 2 : 2 Pachuca
11.97
X3.80
23.31

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

AI overview

AI predictions

AI analysis:2/7 ready · Still preparing:DeepSeek, ChatGPT, Qwen, Kimi, GLM 5.2

Google AI updated04.08.2026 01:12 UTC
1 41% ✓ favourite
X 29%
2 30%
Score1:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:X2
Per AI data H2H: 0-0
Claude updated04.08.2026 01:15 UTC
1 45% ✓ favourite
X 25%
2 30%
Score2:1 Total goals: Over 2.5 BTTS:Yes Bet:Over 2.5

AI consensus:1

AI 1 X 2 Score Total goals BTTS Bet
Google AI 41% 29% 30% 1:1 Over 2.5 Yes X2
Claude 45% 25% 30% 2:1 Over 2.5 Yes Over 2.5

Buy the full AI analysis

Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1

Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.

Match center
Start 04.08.2026 23:45 UTC
Market 1 74.5% @ 1.01 / X 20.1% @ 3.75 / 2 5.4% @ 14.00
🥊 Humans vs Machines
🤖 7 AI models Cincinnati 43%
📐 Math model Cincinnati 47%
💹 Market Cincinnati 47%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
🏦 Virtual bank $10,000
$10,000Virtual balance

Play free: you start with $10,000 in virtual money. Bet on this match at our odds, then track your profit and climb the global leaderboard. No real money, no sign-up.

My virtual bank & leaderboard →
Match center

Cincinnati - Pachuca

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Tsintsinnati - Pachuka, 5 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup lig MLS + MX, Cup lig MLS + MX. 1-y Round. Tsintsinnati - Pachuka, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Tournament Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 3:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.3% fact: home hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.418 / LogLoss 0.748
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 47.3% fact: home hit / ROI 100.0% / Brier 0.418 / LogLoss 0.748
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Cincinnati 47.1% 47.3% market and model agree
Draw 23.6% 23.5% draw risk
Pachuca 29.4% 29.2%
1X2: 3 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 47.3% / 23.5% / 29.2% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,461 / 1,309 Cincinnati / Pachuca
RD 248 / 220 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 965-1,956 / 868-1,750 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 3.18 market consensus · no value · model 29.2%
X 3.75 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.01 Fonbet · no value · model 47.3%
Double chance
12 1.25 Fonbet · no value · model 76.5%
1X 1.04 Fonbet · no value · model 70.8%
X2 1.74 market consensus · no value · model 52.7%
Handicap
2 +0.5 1.73 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.80 Fonbet · line only
2 0 7.60 Fonbet · line only
1 -0.5 2.03 market consensus · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.11 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 5.30 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 4.30 Fonbet · line only
Yes 1.18 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 4.30 23.3% 2.76 36.2%
yes 1.18 84.8% 1.41 70.9%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.20 83.3% 1.22 82.0% 1.25 80.0%
1x 1.29 77.5% 1.32 75.8% 1.04 96.2%
x2 1.72 58.1% 1.76 56.8% 11.00 9.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.45 40.8%
X 2.52 39.7%
3.64 27.5%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.09 47.9%
Under 1.5 1.69 59.2%
Match center

Form & head-to-head

H2H 1-0-0, avg 4.0 gls
2026-08-04 · Tsintsinnati 3:1 Pachuka
Source: ruscore

Odds · 5 bookmakers

Best price: 1 2.07 (Betcity) · X 3.9 (Betcity) · 2 3.25 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 2 3.85 3.25
Winline 1.65 3.75 2.26
Fonbet 2.02 3.85 3.2
Betcity 2.07 3.9 3.1
Liga Stavok 2 3.65 3.05
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

58 Ball possession 42
12 Vsego udarov 18
6 Shots on target 7
3 Shots off target 7
10 Udary ot vorot 5
3 Blokirovannye udary 4
11 Shtrafnye 10
3 Corners 6
2 Offsides 1
12 Auty 18
6 Saves 3
8 Fouls 10
3 Cards total 2
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
2 Travmy 2
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Cincinnati
W L W W W
2026-08-02 MLS 2026
Cincinnati Cincinnati 4:2 San Jose Earthquakes
2026-07-25 MLS 2026
Cincinnati Columbus Crew 2:1 Cincinnati
2026-07-22 MLS 2026
Cincinnati Cincinnati 4:3 Vancouver Whitecaps
2026-07-10 Club Friendly Games 2026
Cincinnati Cincinnati 3:1 Burnley
2026-05-23 MLS 2026
Cincinnati Cincinnati 6:2 Orlando City
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
3.6 Scored
2.0 Conceded
12 Points
Pachuca
L L W L W
2026-08-02 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Leon 1:0 Pachuca Pachuca
2026-07-27 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Pachuca 1:2 Queretaro Pachuca
2026-07-18 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Pumas UNAM 0:3 Pachuca Pachuca
2026-05-18 Liga MX, Clausura 2025, Playoffs
Pumas UNAM 1:0 Pachuca Pachuca
2026-05-15 Liga MX, Clausura 2025, Playoffs
Pachuca 1:0 Pumas UNAM Pachuca
2 Wins
0 Draws
3 Losses
1.0 Scored
0.8 Conceded
6 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyCincinnati - Pachuca

Cincinnati
0 matches total
Pachuca
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Cincinnati
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Pachuca
Cincinnati Team comparison Pachuca
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0
0 Points 0
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
0 Games 0
0 Wins 0
0 Draws 0
0 Losses 0
0 Scored 0
0 Conceded 0

Tsintsinnati Pachuka 0 Games 0 Wins 0 Draws 0 Losses 0 Scored 0 Conceded 0 Points 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Adrian Alcaraz 0:1 7' Evander Ferreira 1 18' Pavel Bukha 2:1 39' Kenji Mboma Dem 3:1 70' Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 65% 5% 30% Double chance 35% 47% 18% CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1330556' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Cup lig MLS + MX Turnirnaya Standings