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USA. MLS. Outrights
USA. MLS. Outrights
Cup lig MLS + MX. 3-y Round 12.08.2026 23:30 UTC Match prediction
✓ Prematch ready Prematch data ✓Line ✓Form –H2H ✓Prediction
12.08.2026 23:30 UTC Cup lig MLS + MX. 3-y Round
Finished

USA. MLS. Outrights

Inter Miami - Leon

Football
Inter Miami
Inter Miami
2 : 2
Finished
Leon
Leon

Inter Miami face Leon on August 12, 2026 in the USA. MLS. Outrights.

Recent form (W-D-L): Inter Miami 3-1-1, Leon 3-0-2. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 48% to win. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Inter Miami — 48%

Pure model vs market (1 · Inter Miami): model 56% · market 47% Δ +9 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Inter Miami48.0%
X · draw23.4%
2 · Leon28.6%

Model estimate: win Inter Miami 48.0%, draw 23.4%, win Leon 28.6%. Model favourite — Inter Miami.

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Inter Miami (odds1.64) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • • Model backs Inter Mayami: probability 50% vs 61% on the line (odds 1.64)
  • • no edge over the line (-11 pp) — informational only
  • • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Inter Miami - Leon August 12, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Leon.

Line favourite Fonbet: Leon. We cross-check with Glicko and the math model below.
  • 1X2 odds (Fonbet): 1 2.07 / X 6.10 / 2 1.07
  • Glicko: Inter Miami 48.0% / X 23.4% / Leon 28.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 7.2% 5 books · best price +2.0%
1 46.5%
X 23.9%
2 29.6%

Odds source: consensus of 5 books (Baltbet, Betcity, Kambi BetMGM, Kambi Unibet, Leon). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

For reference

Line movement

How the odds changed from opening to the current line — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 1 1.90 ↓ 1.80
1X2 X 4.10 ↓ 3.95
1X2 2 3.35 ↑ 3.80

↓ odds shortened (money on this outcome), ↑ drifted (line weakened). For reference, not a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

Leagues Cup
League table
Inter Miami
#233 ptsGP 31-0-27:7
Leon
#19 ptsGP 33-0-06:3
Best price across 13 books
1 2.11 Pinnacle
X 4.20 Unibet
2 3.25 Unibet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Inter Miami
W-D-L 6-1-3 Scored 2.32 Conceded 1.84 xG 2.21 xGA 1.35 Corners 4.6
Leon
W-D-L 3-3-4 Scored 0.97 Conceded 1.18 xG 1.24 xGA 1.86 Corners 4.4

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Injuries and absences
Alende, Tadeo — Travmirovan Silvetti, Mateo — Travmirovan Messi, Lionel — Drugoe

Source: gismo_stats

%

Market consensus

Forecast by market

Match result
Inter Miami
48%
100.00
Draw
23%
6.10
Leon
29%
3.25
Handicap
Inter Miami (0)
62%
11.50
Leon (0)
38%
2.36
Total
Over 9.5
49%
1.86
Under 9.5
51%
1.80
Both teams to score
Yes
48%
4.40
No
52%
2.48

Consensus probability with the bookmaker margin removed; the number on the right is the best available odds. For reference only, not a bet.

Absences

Injuries and absences

Inter Miami
  • Tadeo AlendeOut
  • Mateo SilvettiOut
  • Lionel MessiOut
Leon
No absences

Injury and absence data - for reference.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Inter Miami 3 : 2 Leon
12.01
X3.75
23.23

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

Buy the full AI analysis

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Participant opinions
140 predictions Choose an outcome
1 77% 108
X 12% 18
2 10% 14
Match center
Start 12.08.2026 23:30 UTC
Market 1 30.5% @ 2.07 / X 10.4% @ 6.10 / 2 59.1% @ 1.07
🥊 Humans vs Machines
👥 Community Inter Miami 77%
📐 Math model Inter Miami 48%
💹 Market Inter Miami 47%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
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Match center

Inter Miami - Leon

Itogovyy protokol i rezultaty vstrechi Inter Mayami - Leon, 13 avgusta 2026. Highlights i statistika matcha, Correct score. Cup lig MLS + MX, Cup lig MLS + MX. 3-y Round. Inter Mayami - Leon, kto pobedil, onlayn translyatsiya matcha.

Lineups 11/11 probable starting lineup
Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 0 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Line 1 source Stavka.tv
Player opinions LiveResult 106 combined layer without duplicates
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Tournament Line Movement Overview
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

7/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
yes Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
pending H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
yes Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
yes Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 2:2
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
PropickAI check: math model and Glicko-2

We mark in green only strong signals where the model passed our publication filter. The other rows are for audit and training.

Option Signal Prediction / actual Rating
Glicko-2: base favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 48.0% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.898 / LogLoss 1.451
Glicko-2: calibrated favourite Audit internal check, not a public signal Data: line, form, table home - 48.0% fact: draw missed / ROI -100.0% / Brier 0.898 / LogLoss 1.451
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Inter Miami 47.5% 48.0% market and model agree
Draw 23.6% 23.4% draw risk
Leon 29.0% 28.6%
1X2: 6 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 48.0% / 23.4% / 28.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,787 / 1,537 Inter Miami / Leon
RD 202 / 184 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,383-2,192 / 1,170-1,905 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 28.6%
X 6.10 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 1.99 market consensus · no value · model 48.0%
Double chance
12 1.11 Fonbet · no value · model 76.6%
1X 7.90 Fonbet · weak value +464.2% · model 71.4%
X2 1.33 Fonbet · no value · model 52.0%
Handicap
2 -1 1.02 Fonbet · line only
2 +0.5 1.74 market consensus · line only
2 +1 4.50 Fonbet · line only
2 0 1.01 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 1.25 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 3.65 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.63 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.20 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet Leon
no 1.63 61.4% 2.45 40.8% 2.45 40.8% 2.48 40.3%
yes 2.20 45.5% 4.40 22.7% 4.40 22.7% 1.52 65.8%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet Kambi BetMGM Kambi Unibet
12 1.21 82.6% 1.23 81.3% 1.11 90.1% 1.22 82.0% 1.22 82.0%
1x 1.31 76.3% 1.34 74.6% 7.90 12.7% 1.32 75.8% 1.32 75.8%
x2 1.67 59.9% 1.71 58.5% 1.33 75.2% 1.85 54.1% 1.85 54.1%

First Half Winner

Outcome Leon
2.57 38.9%
X 2.48 40.3%
3.47 28.8%

Goals Over/Under First Half

Outcome Leon
Over 1.5 2.20 45.5%
Under 1.5 1.60 62.5%
Match center
4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1
34 Rokko Rios Novo 17 Ayan Fray 2 Gonsalo Lukhan 16 Micael 32 Noa Allen 7 Rodrigo De Paul 42 Yannik Brayt 5 Kazemiro 8 Telasko Segoviya 56 D. Pinter 54 L. Delinois 23 O. García 7 I. Moreno 14 Dzhokhan Romanya 3 J. Guevara 5 Sebastyan Vegas 29 J. Rodríguez 16 Khordi Kortiso 20 Rodrigo Echeverriya 6 Fernando Beltran 22 S. Santos 13 D. Arcila
Inter Miami
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
34 RRRokko Rios Novo Rokko Rios Novo
17 AFAyan Fray Ayan Fray
2 GLGonsalo Lukhan Gonsalo Lukhan
16 MMicael Micael
32 NANoa Allen Noa Allen
7 RDRodrigo De Paul Rodrigo De Paul
42 YBYannik Brayt Yannik Brayt
5 KKazemiro Kazemiro
8 TSTelasko Segoviya Telasko Segoviya
56 DPD. Pinter D. Pinter
54 LDL. Delinois L. Delinois
Head coach Ankhel Gilermo Oyos
Leon
Formation 4-2-3-1
Probable starting lineup
23 OGO. García O. García
7 IMI. Moreno I. Moreno
14 DRDzhokhan Romanya Dzhokhan Romanya
3 JGJ. Guevara J. Guevara
5 SVSebastyan Vegas Sebastyan Vegas
29 JRJ. Rodríguez J. Rodríguez
16 KKKhordi Kortiso Khordi Kortiso
20 RERodrigo Echeverriya Rodrigo Echeverriya
6 FBFernando Beltran Fernando Beltran
22 SSS. Santos S. Santos
13 DAD. Arcila D. Arcila
Inter Miami

No home-team absences found in the prematch data.

Leon

No away-team absences found in the prematch data.

Formations 4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1
SStats Market - Form - Table - Bookmakers
Match center
Inter Miami Team form Leon
10 Matches 10
31 Goals 23
3.1 Per match 2.3
7 Wins 6
1 Draws 0
2 Losses 4

Form & head-to-head

H2H 0-0-1, avg 5.0 gls
2026-08-12 · Inter Mayami 2:3 Leon
Source: ruscore

Odds · 4 bookmakers

Best price: 1 1.65 (Pari) · X 4.7 (Pari) · 2 4.1 (Pari)
Bookmaker1X2
Pari 1.65 4.7 4.1
Winline 1.63 4.6 4
Fonbet 1.65 4.7 4.1
Betcity 1.65 4.7 4.1
Source: ruscore · line comparison

Match stats

62 Ball possession 38
19 Vsego udarov 10
8 Shots on target 6
5 Shots off target 3
3 Udary ot vorot 8
6 Blokirovannye udary 1
12 Shtrafnye 8
11 Corners 4
1 Offsides 1
12 Auty 8
3 Saves 6
7 Fouls 11
3 Cards total 2
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
0 Second yellows 0
1 Travmy 0
5 Substitutions 5
Source: ruscore
Inter Miami
L W D W W
2026-08-09 Leagues Cup 2026, Liga MX
Inter Miami Inter Miami 1:2 Monterrey
2026-08-05 Leagues Cup 2026, Liga MX
Inter Miami Inter Miami 4:2 Atletico San Luis
2026-08-02 MLS 2026
Inter Miami Inter Miami 2:2 Columbus Crew
2026-07-25 MLS 2026
Inter Miami Montreal 0:1 Inter Miami
2026-07-22 MLS 2026
Inter Miami Inter Miami 3:2 Chicago Fire
3 Wins
1 Draws
1 Losses
2.2 Scored
1.6 Conceded
10 Points
Leon
W W W L L
2026-08-08 Leagues Cup 2026, Liga MX
Orlando City 1:2 Leon Leon
2026-08-06 Leagues Cup 2026, Liga MX
Nashville 0:1 Leon Leon
2026-08-02 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Leon 1:0 Pachuca Leon
2026-07-25 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Tijuana 1:0 Leon Leon
2026-07-18 Liga MX 26/27, Apertura
Leon 2:3 Atlas Leon
3 Wins
0 Draws
2 Losses
1.2 Scored
1.0 Conceded
9 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyInter Miami - Leon

Inter Miami
0 matches total
Leon
Biggest win — largest score margin
Highest-scoring match — most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw — draw with the most goals

Match history

Match center
Tournament context: position, points, form, bracket and head-to-head history.
Team 1 Inter Miami
Data 12 / 0 / 0 comparisons / table / bracket
Team 2 Leon
Inter Miami Team comparison Leon
2 Games 2
1 Wins 2
0 Draws 0
1 Losses 0
5 Scored 3
4 Conceded 1
3 Points 6
0 Attacks 0
0 Dangerous attacks 0
0 Big chances 0
0 Shots on goal 0
0 Udary v stvor 0
2 Games 2
1 Wins 2
0 Draws 0
1 Losses 0
5 Scored 3
4 Conceded 1

Inter Mayami Leon 2 Games 2 1 Wins 2 0 Draws 0 1 Losses 0 5 Scored 3 4 Conceded 1 3 Points 6 0 Attacks 0 Dangerous attacks 0 Big chances 0 Shots on goal 0 Udary v stvor 0 Shtangi/perekladiny 0 Uglovye 0 Offsaydy 0 Foly 0 % vladeniya myachom 0 Warnings 0 Sendoffs 0 Goly Daniel Pinter 1:0 42' Daniel Arcila 1 50' Yannik Brayt 2:1 53' Juan Dominguez 2 61' Daniel Arcila 2:3 85' Rezultaty golosovaniya Result v osnovnoe vremya 77% 12% 11% Double chance 45% 43% 12% Materialy po prognozam Shou imeni Messi nachinaetsya! Kak vystupit Lionel na klubnom chempionate mira? «Filadelfiya» — «Inter Mayami». Lionel Messi delaet Bekkhema schastlivym «Inter Mayami» — «Atlanta». Lionel Messi snova schastliv! «Inter Mayami» — «Krus Asul». Lionel Messi otmetit kapitanskuyu povyazku «Inter Mayami» — «Kolambus Kryu». Bekkhem zhdet svoego spasitelya «Inter Mayami» — «Ostin». Bekkhem nuzhdaetsya v Messi «Filadelfiya Yunion» — «Inter Mayami». Bekkhem v ozhidanii debyuta Messi! CHAMP('pageBlockSlider'); CHAMP({ name: 'commentsWidget', params: { appId: CHAMP.comments['appId'], xid: 'match_1330488' } }); CHAMP('tournamentTabs'); CHAMP('swipingTabs'); CHAMP('match'); CHAMP('stickyVertical'); Cup l

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Inter Miami vs Leon?

By the PropickAI model, Leon is favoured — about 48% win probability.

What does PropickAI predict for Inter Miami vs Leon?

The consensus of 7 AI models and the Glicko-2 rating leans to Leon. Full probabilities and bookmaker odds are shown on this page.

When does Inter Miami vs Leon start?

August 12, 2026.