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USA. Women. NWSL
USA. Women. NWSL
02.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Finished

USA. Women. NWSL

Washington Spirit (w) - San Diego Wave (w)

Football
W
Washington Spirit (w)
0 : 1
Finished
S
San Diego Wave (w)

Washington Spirit (w) meet San Diego Wave (w) on August 2, 2026 in the USA. Women. NWSL.

Recent form (W-D-L): Washington Spirit (w) 4-0-1, San Diego Wave (w) 2-1-2. These sides have met 1 time recently — the head-to-head record is shown below. Sportsbooks lean towards Washington Spirit (w), an implied 44% to win. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 45% to win — broadly in line with the market. Read on for detailed stats, previous meetings, the bookmaker line and the PrognozAI neural-network verdict.

🎯 PropickAI prediction

Our model prediction (Glicko-2)

1 Washington Spirit (w)45%

Pure model vs market (1 · Washington Spirit (w)): model 57% · market 44% Δ +13 pp model estimates above the market

1 · Washington Spirit (w)44.8%
X · draw25.6%
2 · San Diego Wave (w)29.6%

Model estimate: win Washington Spirit (w) 44.8%, draw 25.6%, win San Diego Wave (w) 29.6%. Model favourite — Washington Spirit (w).

Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.

AI agent prediction

Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)

1Washington Spirit (w) (odds1.88) Score 2:1 confidence 50% ✗ outcome missed
  • Model backs Vashington Spirit (Zh): probability 50% vs 53% on the line (odds 1.88)
  • no edge over the line (-3 pp) — informational only
  • Expected score 2:1.

Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.

Math-model prediction

AI match prediction Washington Spirit (w) - San Diego Wave (w) August 2, 2026

Football math model

Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Washington Spirit (w).

Strongest: Washington Spirit (w) - market and Glicko agree
  • 1X2 odds (market consensus): 1 2.06 / X 3.44 / 2 2.97
  • 1X2 market: Washington Spirit (w) 43.6% / X 26.2% / San Diego Wave (w) 30.2%
  • Glicko: Washington Spirit (w) 44.8% / X 25.6% / San Diego Wave (w) 29.6%

For reference

Fair probability (no margin)

Probability excluding the bookmaker margin — for reference, not a betting recommendation.
1X2 outcome bookmaker margin 11.3%
1 43.6%
X 26.1%
2 30.3%

Odds source: market consensus. This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.

SStats data

Statistics and model

NWSL Women
League table
Washington Spirit (w)
#236 ptsGP 1711-3-326:12
San Diego Wave (w)
#529 ptsGP 179-2-623:19
Best price across 13 books
1 2.43 Unibet
X 3.64 Pinnacle
2 2.80 10Bet

Highest odds across books (line-shopping) per SStats data — for reference, not advertising and not a betting recommendation.

Form over 10 matches (SStats)
Washington Spirit (w)
W-D-L 8-0-2 Scored 1.59 Conceded 0.79 xG 1.62 xGA 1.12 Corners 3.2
San Diego Wave (w)
W-D-L 4-2-4 Scored 1.20 Conceded 1.20 xG 1.66 xGA 1.14 Corners 4.1

Averages over the last 10 matches per SStats data — for reference.

Model form (Glicko)
Washington Spirit (w)
Rating 1638 xG 1.35 Win 40%
San Diego Wave (w)
Rating 1515 xG 1.23 Win 34%

Glicko rating, expected goals (xG) and win probability per the SStats model — for reference, complements the AI review.

Model prediction • nb-bet.com

Score prediction

Washington Spirit (w) 2 : 1 San Diego Wave (w)
12.07
X3.45
23.06

Score prediction and odds (1X2): third-party model service nb-bet.com. For reference — not a PropickAI prediction. Source

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Match center
Start 02.08.2026 20:00 UTC
Market 1 43.6% @ 2.06 / X 26.1% @ 3.44 / 2 30.3% @ 2.97
🥊 Humans vs Machines
📐 Math model Washington Spirit (w) 45%
💹 Market Washington Spirit (w) 4360%
Every pick locked before kickoff · public log
Match center

Washington Spirit (w) - San Diego Wave (w)

Form 5/5 recent games
H2H 1 head-to-head matches
Market 3 model / bookmakers
SportsMole preview Raw English text hidden: we use preview facts, lineups and news.
Flashscore context Form, H2H, bracket and TV data received into the match center.
Transfermarkt squad
Present in data
Market Form Match Participants Line
More needed
H2H championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Tournament championat, soccer365, Flashscore
Lineup / squad championat, soccer365, Injuries
Movement Line history
Overview championat, soccer365
Table championat, Flashscore
Football benchmark

What data is collected and where it is shown

5/8
yes Match Soccer365, Flashscore, Championat shown: Overview
yes Market / Glicko model, Winline, Olimpbet, BetExplorer, OddsPortal shown: Overview
pending Lineups and squad Soccer365, SportsMole, Flashscore, Transfermarkt shown: Lineups
yes Form Soccer365, Championat, Flashscore shown: Form
yes H2H Championat, Soccer365, Flashscore shown: H2H
pending Tournament Championat, Flashscore shown: Tournament
pending Player opinions Soccer365, LiveResult, Stavka.tv shown: Overview
yes Live / postmatch Fonbet, LiveResult, final stats shown: Overview / post-match
Post-match / SStats
Score 0:1
Events 0
Statistics 0
Lineups 0
Market and Glicko

Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Outcome Line Glicko Signal
Washington Spirit (w) 44.0% 44.8% market and model agree
Draw 25.9% 25.6% draw risk
San Diego Wave (w) 30.2% 29.6%
xG - 1.35 : 1.23
1X2: 15 Bookies

Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.

Football math model
P1 / X / P2 44.8% / 25.6% / 29.6% outcome probabilities; the draw is not highlighted as value
Rating 1,771 / 1,434 Washington Spirit (w) / San Diego Wave (w)
RD 165 / 194 rating uncertainty
r +/- 2RD 1,441-2,102 / 1,047-1,821 strength interval
HFA: 62 HFA mu: 0.357 MoV: on N: N=1 P: three_way_glicko2_draw_adjusted

Best value: no value found

The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.

Betting snapshot
1X2
2 1.07 Fonbet · no value · model 29.6%
X 6.40 Fonbet · draw accounted for as risk, not as a signal
1 2.05 market consensus · no value · model 44.8%
Double chance
12 1.08 Fonbet · no value · model 74.4%
1X 6.40 Fonbet · weak value +350.7% · model 70.4%
X2 1.02 Fonbet · no value · model 55.2%
Handicap
2 0 1.02 Fonbet · line only
1 0 9.50 Fonbet · line only
Total
Over 2.5 9.00 Fonbet · line only
Under 2.5 1.03 Fonbet · line only
Both teams to score
No 1.40 Fonbet · line only
Yes 2.75 Fonbet · line only

Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.

Bookmaker line

Match markets

Open on Fonbet →
bookmaker line and markets

Match Winner

Outcome 10Bet 1xBet Bet365 Betano Betfair BetVictor
2.05 48.8% 2.07 48.3% 2.00 50.0% 2.10 47.6% 2.05 48.8% 1.91 52.4%
X 3.50 28.6% 3.48 28.7% 3.60 27.8% 3.45 29.0% 3.50 28.6% 3.13 32.0%
3.00 33.3% 3.02 33.1% 3.00 33.3% 3.10 32.3% 3.00 33.3% 2.80 35.7%

Both teams to score

Outcome Fonbet Leon
no 1.40 71.4% 2.28 43.9%
yes 2.75 36.4% 1.56 64.1%

Double chance

Outcome Baltbet Betcity Fonbet
12 1.16 86.2% 1.22 82.0% 1.08 92.6%
1x 1.27 78.7% 1.34 74.6% 6.40 15.6%
x2 1.62 61.7% 1.72 58.1% 1.02 98.0%

Exact Score

Outcome 10Bet
0_0 11.00 9.1%
0_1 10.00 10.0%
0_2 15.00 6.7%
0_3 31.00 3.2%
0_4 71.00 1.4%
0_5 126.00 0.8%
1_0 8.00 12.5%
1_1 6.25 16.0%
1_2 9.00 11.1%
1_3 19.00 5.3%
1_4 46.00 2.2%
1_5 126.00 0.8%
2_0 10.00 10.0%
2_1 7.00 14.3%
2_2 10.00 10.0%
2_3 21.00 4.8%
2_4 51.00 2.0%
2_5 126.00 0.8%
Match center
Washington Spirit (w)
W W W L W
2026-07-30 National Womens Soccer League 2026
Washington Spirit (w) Utah Royals (w) 0:1 Washington Spirit (w)
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Washington Spirit (w) Washington Spirit (w) 1:0 Denver Summit (w)
2026-07-19 National Womens Soccer League 2026
Washington Spirit (w) Boston Legacy (w) 1:2 Washington Spirit (w)
2026-07-16 National Womens Soccer League 2026
Washington Spirit (w) Gotham (w) 1:0 Washington Spirit (w)
2026-07-11 National Womens Soccer League 2026
Washington Spirit (w) North Carolina Courage (w) 0:2 Washington Spirit (w)
4 Wins
0 Draws
1 Losses
1.2 Scored
0.4 Conceded
12 Points
San Diego Wave (w)
L D L W W
2026-07-26 National Womens Soccer League 2026
San Diego Wave (w) 0:2 OL Reign (w) San Diego Wave (w)
2026-07-18 National Womens Soccer League 2026
Kansas City (w) 2:2 San Diego Wave (w) San Diego Wave (w)
2026-07-12 National Womens Soccer League 2026
San Diego Wave (w) 0:2 Angel City (w) San Diego Wave (w)
2026-07-05 National Womens Soccer League 2026
San Diego Wave (w) 2:0 Gotham (w) San Diego Wave (w)
2026-06-28 Club Friendly Games, Women 2026
Portland Thorns (w) 3:4 San Diego Wave (w) San Diego Wave (w)
2 Wins
1 Draws
2 Losses
1.6 Scored
1.8 Conceded
7 Points
Match center

Full head-to-head historyWashington Spirit (w) - San Diego Wave (w)

Washington Spirit (w)
1 matches total
San Diego Wave (w)
Washington Spirit (w): 0 (0%)
Draws:0 (0%)
San Diego Wave (w): 1 (100%)
Biggest win San Diego Wave (w) 2:1 (2026-05-16) largest score margin
Highest-scoring match 3 goals (2:1, 2026-05-16) most goals in a game
Highest-scoring draw draw with the most goals

Overall statistics

1 Goals scored 2
2 Goals conceded 1

Match history

2026-05-16 National Womens Soccer League 2026
San Diego Wave (w) 2:1 Washington Spirit (w)