Uzbekistan. Pro-league
Fardu Ferghana go head-to-head with TerDU on August 4, 2026 in the Uzbekistan. Pro-league.
Recent form (W-D-L): Fardu Ferghana 3-0-2, TerDU 0-5. PrognozAI's Glicko-2 model gives the home side 52% to win. Full analysis — form, H2H, odds and the PrognozAI AI prediction — follows on this page.
Our model prediction (Glicko-2)
1 Fardu Ferghana — 52%
Pure model vs market (1 · Fardu Ferghana): model 57% · market 80% Δ −23 pp model estimates below the market
Model estimate: win Fardu Ferghana 52.3%, draw 20.2%, win TerDU 27.5%. Model favourite — Fardu Ferghana.
Informational estimate, not a betting recommendation.
Independent AI-agent assessment from our data (model, market line, form, H2H)
Analytical AI-agent assessment, not a betting recommendation.
Math-model prediction
Based on the collected prematch data, the favourite looks like Fardu Ferghana.
For reference
Odds source: consensus of 2 books (Betcity, Fonbet). This is the fair probability after removing the bookmaker margin from the odds — reference information, not a prediction or a betting recommendation.
Full match breakdown: outcomes, market scenarios, form, lineups and key risks. During live you can get another, more accurate prediction accounting for the score, minute and tempo. Price: $1
Payment via YooKassa. After payment we will redirect you to a private link with the prediction.
Football math model. The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Glicko-2 is a team-strength rating: it weighs the line, history and consistency, but is not a guarantee.
Best value: no value found
The football model compares the market, Glicko-2, Poisson/xG, home advantage and tempo. The draw is accounted for as match risk but is not presented as a separate signal. Green value on an outcome means a mathematical edge, not a prediction guarantee.
Betting notes are built from the line, market and our math model: take a signal only when the model and market agree.
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 1.09 91.7% | 1.05 95.2% |
| 1x | — | 1.01 99.0% |
| x2 | 4.40 22.7% | 4.90 20.4% |
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| — | 1.08 92.6% | |
| 1.92 52.1% | — | |
| — | 2.30 43.5% | |
| — | 5.10 19.6% | |
| — | 1.01 99.0% | |
| 1.79 55.9% | — | |
| — | 6.40 15.6% | |
| — | 1.55 64.5% | |
| — | 1.13 88.5% | |
| — | 12.00 8.3% |
| Outcome | Betcity | Fonbet |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | — | 1.10 90.9% |
| Over 1.5 | — | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 1.46 68.5% | 1.18 84.8% |
| Over 3.5 | — | 1.37 73.0% |
| Over 4.5 | — | 1.60 62.5% |
| Over 5.5 | — | 3.40 29.4% |
| Over 6.5 | — | 5.50 18.2% |
| Under 0.5 | — | 5.90 17.0% |
| Under 1.5 | — | 4.20 23.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 2.50 40.0% | 4.20 23.8% |
| Under 3.5 | — | 2.85 35.1% |
| Under 4.5 | — | 2.20 45.5% |
| Under 5.5 | — | 1.27 78.7% |
| Under 6.5 | — | 1.11 90.1% |
| Outcome | Fonbet |
|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 2.70 37.0% |
| Over 1.5 | 4.20 23.8% |
| Under 0.5 | 1.40 71.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 1.18 84.8% |
Full head-to-head historyFardu Ferghana - TerDU
The Fardu Ferghana - TerDU breakdown — outcomes, probabilities, risks and history — is available after a free sign-in.
